Recent Profit-Takes @ 95c · 1s poll · full fleet
No profit-take exits yet. At 95c threshold this is rare — positions need huge moves to qualify. Lower BTC_PROFIT_TAKE_PCT (e.g. to 0.85) to fire more often.
Unified Fleet Panel - sorted by strength score (best martingale targets first)
73 bots - click row or arrow to jump down
Signal (1h): 87% Up / 13% Down (n=228)
Fleet bets (1h): 42% Up / 58% Down (n=157)
Market reality (6h): 43% Up / 57% Down (n=72)
Fleet bias is 45pp away from signal direction. This is the ASYMMETRIC CAP effect: when one side hits >70c, the cap blocks those bets, leaving only the cheaper side. Not a bug - bots are doing the right thing within their constraints.
| Bot | Streak | Strength | Live Bet | Bankroll | 24h PnL | WR30 | Jump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | L6 v | 111 pBrk 51% | MID Up @ 64.0c · $40 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,752 | $+114 | 50% 15/15 | |
| ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | L4 v | 100 pBrk 60% | no open bet ↗ PM | $6,080 | $-296 | 60% 6/4 | |
| STREAK_REV_3PLUS | W5 ^ | 95 pBrk 45% | MID Down @ 38.0c · $25 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,973 | $-210 | 57% 17/13 | |
| ULT2_EDGE_WEIGHTED | W5 ^ | 95 pBrk 45% | MID Down @ 32.0c · $24 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,974 | $-179 | 57% 17/13 | |
| ULT4_REGIME_ADAPT | W5 ^ | 95 pBrk 45% | MID Down @ 32.0c · $25 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,973 | $-39 | 57% 17/13 | |
| STREAK_REV_KELLY | W5 ^ | 94 pBrk 44% | MID Down @ 34.0c · $25 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,973 | $-190 | 60% 18/12 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K3 | L5 v | 94 pBrk 44% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-149 | 40% 12/18 | |
| CRISIS_EXIT | W5 ^ | 94 pBrk 44% | MID Down @ 34.0c · $28 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,970 | $-286 | 60% 18/12 | |
| ULT1_TIERED_PAROLI | W5 ^ | 94 pBrk 44% | MID Down @ 32.0c · $25 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,973 | $-122 | 60% 18/12 | |
| INVERSE_BOOK_FAKE_FADE | W5 ^ | 91 pBrk 41% | no open bet ↗ PM | $3,074 | $-147 | 67% 20/10 | |
| BOOK_FAKE_FADE | L5 v | 91 pBrk 41% | no open bet ↗ PM | $4,937 | $-467 | 37% 11/19 | |
| BAYES_SIZE | W4 ^ | 88 pBrk 48% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-467 | 47% 14/16 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERSOLD_UP | W1 | 85 pBrk 75% | no open bet ↗ PM | $4,927 | $-67 | - 1/3 | |
| MART_BUST_TEST | L3 | 80 pBrk 50% | MID Down @ 26.0c · $5 3:36 ↗ PM | $992 | $-0 | 53% 16/14 | |
| MART_PURE | W3 | 79 pBrk 49% | MID Up @ 67.0c · $40 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,936 | $-173 | 50% 15/15 | |
| CRISIS_BAYES_SKEW | W3 | 77 pBrk 47% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-151 | 47% 14/16 | |
| WHALE_FOLLOW_CAP55 | L3 | 77 pBrk 47% | no open bet ↗ PM | $4,910 | $-132 | 47% 8/9 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_OOS | W4 ^ | 70 pBrk 30% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,054 | $+70 | 70% 16/7 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN | L2 | 69 pBrk 49% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-330 | 40% 12/18 | |
| BAYES_COLD | W2 | 67 pBrk 47% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-454 | 50% 15/15 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERBOUGHT_DN | L1 | 67 pBrk 57% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,003 | $+35 | 57% 4/3 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_V2 | L1 | 64 pBrk 54% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,040 | $+76 | 53% 16/14 | |
| REVERSE_FADE_KELLY | W1 | 63 pBrk 53% | MID Up @ 64.0c · $50 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,939 | $-61 | 43% 13/17 | |
| ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4_V2 | L2 | 62 pBrk 42% | MID Down @ 12.0c · $30 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,940 | $-768 | 43% 13/17 | |
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN | L1 | 62 pBrk 52% | no open bet ↗ PM | $4,968 | $+337 | 53% 16/14 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_1TO1 | W1 | 62 pBrk 52% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,078 | $+800 | 47% 14/16 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K4_MART | L1 | 62 pBrk 52% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+399 | 57% 17/13 | |
| STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER | L2 | 61 pBrk 41% | MID Down @ 12.0c · $30 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,974 | $-962 | 43% 13/17 | |
| STREAK_FADE_K4 | W1 | 61 pBrk 51% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-160 | 43% 13/17 | |
| FADE_KELLY | L1 | 60 pBrk 50% | MID Down @ 38.5c · $50 3:36 ↗ PM | $5,020 | $-401 | 50% 15/15 | |
| STREAK_K1_RSI_FADE_UP | W1 | 60 pBrk 50% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,003 | $+9 | - 2/2 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_WIDE_DOWN | W2 | 60 pBrk 40% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+242 | 60% 18/12 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K4 | L1 | 59 pBrk 49% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+26 | 53% 16/14 | |
| FADE_4 | W1 | 59 pBrk 49% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $-104 | 47% 14/16 | |
| REGIME_AWARE_BTC | L1 | 56 pBrk 46% | MID Down @ 25.0c · $30 3:36 ↗ PM | $5,016 | $-334 | 43% 13/17 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW | W1 | 55 pBrk 45% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,078 | $+1226 | 57% 17/13 | |
| QUANTUM_BRAIN | L1 | 54 pBrk 44% | MID Down @ 34.0c · $117 3:36 ↗ PM | $4,899 | $-2994 | 43% 13/17 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | L1 | 49 pBrk 39% | MID Down @ 38.4c · $40 3:36 ↗ PM | $5,114 | $-1669 | 40% 12/18 | |
| BAYES_SIZE_CAP60 | W1 | 41 pBrk 31% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,221 | $+202 | 69% 11/5 | |
| WHALE_FOLLOW | L1 | 40 pBrk 30% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,046 | $-2809 | 27% 8/22 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2 | W1 | 10 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,036 | $+0 | - 1/0 | |
| CONFLUENCE_5 | W1 | 10 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,021 | $+22 | - 1/0 | |
| ARB_INTRA | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| BTC_REALITY_CHECK | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| BTC_VELOCITY_FRONT_RUN_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| CLAUDE_FOLLOW_NARROW | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| CONFLUENCE_KELLY | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| CONFLUENCE_PEAK | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| DEEP_OVERSOLD | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| DOWN_BIASED_FOLLOWER_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_3 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_4H_K4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_ATR_K4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_BB_K4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_RSI30_K4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_RSI_K4 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_RSI_K6 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FADE_DOWN_RSI_K8 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FUSION_FADE_DOWN_BB_RSI_K4_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| FUSION_OVERSOLD_STREAK_K1_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| INVERSE_CLAUDE_BTC_5M | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| INVERSE_CLAUDE_CONF80 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| INVERSE_HIGH_PRICE_LATE | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| KRAKEN_VELOCITY_LEAD | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| LATE_EDGE | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| MEGA_K8 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| ONEK_SURVIVAL | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| POST_RESOLUTION_FADE | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| SECOND_WIND_REVERSAL_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| SPREAD_ARB_TIGHT_v2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| STREAK_FADE | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_V2 | - | 0 pBrk 0% | no open bet ↗ PM | $5,000 | $+0 | - 0/0 |
Streak break advisor + MART agent
All bots · lifetime WR + Wilson LB + recent regime · Bayesian P(break) + EV · next strongest signal calloutsMARTINGALE_STREAK_BREAK ($5k bankroll · auto-bets opposite · $20-$40-$80-$160)
Bets: 0
W/L: 0/0 (-)
PnL: $+0.0
Bankroll: $5000.0
📡 NEXT STRONGEST SIGNALS (top 3 by streak + p_break)
STRONGEST
INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55
↓ lose-6
P(break)=44.6%
EV: $-0.108
WATCH
2ND
ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER
↓ lose-4
P(break)=60.0%
EV: $+0.2
BET AGAINST
3RD
STREAK_REV_3PLUS
↑ win-5
P(break)=41.9%
EV: $-0.162
WATCH
Recent alerts (last 1h)
| Time | Bot | Level | Streak | P(break) | Acted | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00:15 | BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | ALERT | win-4 | 58.7% | - | pending |
| 19:59:44 | ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | ALERT | lose-4 | 60.0% | - | pending |
| 19:59:14 | INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | ALERT | lose-5 | 50.9% | - | pending |
| 19:56:14 | BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | ALERT | win-4 | 58.7% | - | pending |
| 19:55:44 | ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | ALERT | lose-4 | 60.0% | - | pending |
| 19:55:14 | INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | ALERT | lose-4 | 54.8% | - | pending |
| 19:51:42 | ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | ALERT | lose-4 | 60.0% | - | pending |
| 19:51:12 | INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | ALERT | lose-4 | 54.8% | - | pending |
| 19:47:42 | ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | ALERT | lose-4 | 60.0% | - | pending |
| 19:43:41 | ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | ALERT | lose-4 | 60.0% | - | pending |
All bots · 43 tracked (sorted by signal strength)
Lifetime = WR over all bets · Wilson 95% LB = conservative WR · Recent = last-12 WR (regime indicator) · P_naive = 1-WR · P_bayes = 0.6*lifetime + 0.4*recent · EV@50c = expected $ per $1 bet if you bet opposite at 50c entry
| Bot | n | W/L | PnL | Lifetime WR | Wilson LB | Recent12 | Streak | P(break) naive | P(break) Bayes | EV@50c | Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | 384 | 200/184 | $+244.0 | 52.1% | 47.1% | 33.0% | ↓ 6 | 52.1% | 44.6% | $-0.108 | HIGH |
| ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER | 10 | 6/4 | $+142.12 | 60.0% | 31.3% | 60.0% | ↓ 4 | 60.0% | 60.0% | $+0.2 | ALERT |
| STREAK_REV_3PLUS | 124 | 65/59 | $-96.94 | 52.4% | 43.7% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 47.6% | 41.9% | $-0.162 | |
| ULT2_EDGE_WEIGHTED | 127 | 67/60 | $-35.03 | 52.8% | 44.1% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 47.2% | 41.7% | $-0.166 | |
| STREAK_REV_KELLY | 123 | 65/58 | $-12.97 | 52.8% | 44.1% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 47.2% | 41.6% | $-0.167 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K3 | 121 | 57/64 | $-206.71 | 47.1% | 38.4% | 33.0% | ↓ 5 | 47.1% | 41.6% | $-0.168 | |
| CRISIS_EXIT | 111 | 59/52 | $-87.36 | 53.2% | 43.9% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 46.8% | 41.4% | $-0.171 | |
| ULT1_TIERED_PAROLI | 126 | 67/59 | $-20.99 | 53.2% | 44.5% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 46.8% | 41.4% | $-0.171 | |
| ULT4_REGIME_ADAPT | 114 | 61/53 | $+13.16 | 53.5% | 44.4% | 67.0% | ↑ 5 | 46.5% | 41.2% | $-0.175 | |
| BOOK_FAKE_FADE | 483 | 217/266 | $-649.78 | 44.9% | 40.5% | 25.0% | ↓ 5 | 44.9% | 37.0% | $-0.261 | |
| INVERSE_BOOK_FAKE_FADE | 377 | 198/179 | $-427.06 | 52.5% | 47.5% | 83.0% | ↑ 5 | 47.5% | 35.2% | $-0.297 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERSOLD_UP | 4 | 1/3 | $-66.98 | 25.0% | 4.6% | 25.0% | ↑ 1 | 75.0% | 75.0% | $+0.5 | |
| BAYES_SIZE | 63 | 35/28 | $+469.49 | 55.6% | 43.3% | 58.0% | ↑ 4 | 44.4% | 43.3% | $-0.133 | |
| MART_PURE | 427 | 214/213 | $+157.54 | 50.1% | 45.4% | 58.0% | ↑ 3 | 49.9% | 46.6% | $-0.068 | |
| MART_BUST_TEST | 428 | 207/221 | $-133.7 | 48.4% | 43.7% | 42.0% | ↓ 3 | 48.4% | 45.7% | $-0.086 | |
| CRISIS_BAYES_SKEW | 52 | 29/23 | $+244.6 | 55.8% | 42.3% | 58.0% | ↑ 3 | 44.2% | 43.2% | $-0.136 | |
| WHALE_FOLLOW_CAP55 | 17 | 8/9 | $-64.51 | 47.1% | 26.2% | 33.0% | ↓ 3 | 47.1% | 41.6% | $-0.169 | |
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN | 58 | 30/28 | $+290.59 | 51.7% | 39.2% | 75.0% | ↓ 1 | 51.7% | 61.0% | $+0.221 | |
| default | 6 | 3/3 | $+0.3 | 50.0% | 18.8% | 50.0% | ↓ 2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | $+0.0 | |
| REVERSE_FADE_KELLY | 220 | 107/113 | $-212.97 | 48.6% | 42.1% | 33.0% | ↑ 1 | 51.4% | 57.5% | $+0.15 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERBOUGHT_DN | 7 | 4/3 | $+11.76 | 57.1% | 25.0% | 57.0% | ↓ 1 | 57.1% | 57.1% | $+0.143 | |
| FADE_KELLY | 237 | 120/117 | $-276.94 | 50.6% | 44.3% | 67.0% | ↓ 1 | 50.6% | 57.0% | $+0.141 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_V2 | 144 | 80/64 | $+480.93 | 55.6% | 47.4% | 58.0% | ↓ 1 | 55.6% | 56.7% | $+0.133 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K4_MART | 59 | 29/30 | $+375.73 | 49.2% | 36.8% | 67.0% | ↓ 1 | 49.2% | 56.2% | $+0.123 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_OOS | 23 | 16/7 | $+76.92 | 69.6% | 49.1% | 83.0% | ↑ 4 | 30.4% | 24.9% | $-0.501 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_1TO1 | 451 | 218/233 | $-86.7 | 48.3% | 43.8% | 42.0% | ↑ 1 | 51.7% | 54.3% | $+0.087 | |
| BAYES_COLD | 66 | 36/30 | $+43.22 | 54.5% | 42.6% | 58.0% | ↑ 2 | 45.5% | 43.9% | $-0.121 | |
| REGIME_AWARE_BTC | 136 | 67/69 | $-328.42 | 49.3% | 41.0% | 58.0% | ↓ 1 | 49.3% | 52.9% | $+0.058 | |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW | 391 | 210/181 | $+1615.34 | 53.7% | 48.8% | 42.0% | ↑ 1 | 46.3% | 51.1% | $+0.022 | |
| STREAK_K1_RSI_FADE_UP | 4 | 2/2 | $+9.27 | 50.0% | 15.0% | 50.0% | ↑ 1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | $+0.0 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN | 83 | 46/37 | $-53.85 | 55.4% | 44.7% | 17.0% | ↓ 2 | 55.4% | 39.9% | $-0.202 | |
| STREAK_FADE_K4 | 56 | 29/27 | $-77.7 | 51.8% | 39.0% | 50.0% | ↑ 1 | 48.2% | 48.9% | $-0.021 | |
| STREAK_FOLLOW_K4 | 55 | 26/29 | $-116.4 | 47.3% | 34.7% | 50.0% | ↓ 1 | 47.3% | 48.4% | $-0.033 | |
| FADE_4 | 58 | 31/27 | $-97.12 | 53.4% | 40.8% | 50.0% | ↑ 1 | 46.6% | 47.9% | $-0.041 | |
| ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4_V2 | 545 | 230/315 | $-1899.59 | 42.2% | 38.1% | 25.0% | ↓ 2 | 42.2% | 35.3% | $-0.294 | |
| STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER | 516 | 210/306 | $-2106.53 | 40.7% | 36.5% | 25.0% | ↓ 2 | 40.7% | 34.4% | $-0.312 | |
| MTF_RSI_BB_WIDE_DOWN | 30 | 18/12 | $+122.32 | 60.0% | 42.3% | 75.0% | ↑ 2 | 40.0% | 34.0% | $-0.32 | |
| QUANTUM_BRAIN | 438 | 200/238 | $-6047.45 | 45.7% | 41.1% | 33.0% | ↓ 1 | 45.7% | 40.7% | $-0.185 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 | 566 | 219/347 | $-3783.93 | 38.7% | 34.8% | 42.0% | ↓ 1 | 38.7% | 39.9% | $-0.202 | |
| WHALE_FOLLOW | 494 | 165/329 | $-3481.61 | 33.4% | 29.4% | 25.0% | ↓ 1 | 33.4% | 30.0% | $-0.399 | |
| BAYES_SIZE_CAP60 | 16 | 11/5 | $+243.33 | 68.8% | 44.4% | 75.0% | ↑ 1 | 31.2% | 28.7% | $-0.425 | |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2 | 1 | 1/0 | $+37.56 | 100.0% | 20.7% | 100.0% | ↑ 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $-1.0 | |
| CONFLUENCE_5 | 1 | 1/0 | $+22.17 | 100.0% | 20.7% | 100.0% | ↑ 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | $-1.0 |
Thresholds: ALERT streak≥4 P(break)≥45% · HIGH streak≥6 P(break)≥40% · EXTREME streak≥8 P(break)≥35%
₿ BTC 5m Fleet
All strategies · CLOB-real entry/PnL on patched bots · live status + open slips poll every 2s · research panelsloading market…
[TOP] STRONGEST FLEET SIGNALS
Top 3 live consensus signals · score = sum of 9-yr backtest Wilson-LB excess (pp) across agreeing bots.
#1 BET DOWN @ 12.0c · score 23.06pp · resolves in 3:36
13 bots agree: ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4_V2 (+5.18pp), STREAK_REV_3PLUS (+2.44pp), STREAK_REV_KELLY (+2.44pp), FADE_KELLY (+2.00pp), STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER (+2.00pp), CRISIS_EXIT (+1.50pp), QUANTUM_BRAIN (+1.50pp), REGIME_AWARE_BTC (+1.50pp) ... +5 more
💡 Manual play: bet Down on market btc-updown-5m-1781467200 · View on Polymarket >
#2 BET UP @ 67.0c · score 1.50pp · resolves in 3:36
3 bots agree: REVERSE_FADE_KELLY (+1.50pp), INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 (+0.00pp), MART_PURE (+0.00pp)
💡 Manual play: bet Up on market btc-updown-5m-1781467200 · View on Polymarket >
🎯 Edge Finder
Honest fills since 2026-06-09 23:11 UTC · sorted by excess pp (WR − avg entry) · cached 60s · JSON · cache: 10sPre-patch PnL often used ~50¢ signal prices while CLOB was 70-80¢. Conservative excess = Wilson 95% lower-bound WR minus avg entry (pessimistic; survives small samples). CLOB honest / v2 gates = trustworthy fills. Deploy gate: ≥+3pp conservative, n≥50, positive PnL.
No verified edge yet - but 1 unverified bot(s) show raw signal (INVERSE_BOOK_FAKE_FADE). Those are still on ~50¢ signal fills; treat as hypotheses until CLOB-patched. Your active experiment: BFR_V2 / IWF_V2 below.
v2 A/B experiment (active path to honest edge)
Legacy BFR/IWF bled post-patch. v2 accounts use tightened entry bands from band analysis - need 50 CLOB-verified bets each before deploy.
| v2 bot | Sample | Conservative excess | vs legacy |
|---|---|---|---|
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2 | 1/50 | - | - (BINANCE_FRONT_RUN) |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_V2 | 1/50 | - | - (INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW) |
CLOB-patch candidates (hypothesis only)
High raw excess on signal fills may be fiction like pre-patch green days. Patch only after v2 A/B completes - or patch one bot at a time to confirm.
| Bot | n | Raw excess | Conservative | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVERSE_BOOK_FAKE_FADE | 4 | +45.5pp | - | signal @ ~50¢ - patch CLOB to test |
CLOB-verified & v2 A/B
| Bot | n | WR | Avg¢ | Conservative | PnL | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 CLOB honest | 5 | 80.0% | 42¢ | -4.2pp raw +38.2pp pre -7pp → post +38pp vs fee BE 44¢: +36.2pp | $+165 | COLLECTING 5/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| MART_PURE CLOB honest | 427 | 50.1% | 50¢ | -4.7pp raw +0.0pp vs fee BE 52¢: -2.0pp | $+158 | EARLY+ +0.0pp raw · $+158 · need n=50 to verify |
| BAYES_SIZE_CAP60 CLOB honest | 16 | 68.8% | 51¢ | -7.0pp raw +17.3pp vs fee BE 53¢: +15.3pp | $+243 | EARLY+ +17.3pp raw · $+243 · need n=50 to verify |
| INVERSE_WHALE_OOS CLOB honest | 23 | 69.6% | 65¢ | -15.4pp raw +5.0pp vs fee BE 67¢: +3.0pp | $+77 | EARLY+ +5.0pp raw · $+77 · need n=50 to verify |
| ULT5_MEGA_SNIPER CLOB honest | 10 | 60.0% | 51¢ | -19.8pp raw +9.0pp vs fee BE 53¢: +7.0pp | $+142 | EARLY+ +9.0pp raw · $+142 · need n=50 to verify |
| WHALE_FOLLOW_CAP55 CLOB honest | 17 | 47.1% | 48¢ | -22.0pp raw -1.1pp vs fee BE 50¢: -3.1pp | $-65 | MARGINAL -1.1pp raw · $-65 · variance zone |
| STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER CLOB honest | 5 | 40.0% | 36¢ | -24.4pp raw +3.8pp pre -3pp → post +4pp vs fee BE 38¢: +1.8pp | $+13 | COLLECTING 5/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4_V2 CLOB honest | 5 | 40.0% | 38¢ | -26.2pp raw +2.0pp vs fee BE 40¢: +0.0pp | $-21 | COLLECTING 5/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERBOUGHT_DN CLOB honest | 7 | 57.1% | 56¢ | -31.1pp raw +1.0pp vs fee BE 58¢: -1.0pp | $+12 | COLLECTING 7/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| STREAK_K1_RSI_FADE_UP CLOB honest | 4 | 50.0% | 48¢ | - raw +2.0pp vs fee BE 50¢: -0.0pp | $+9 | COLLECTING 4/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| BOOK_FAKE_FADE CLOB honest | 4 | 0.0% | 47¢ | - raw -46.5pp pre -1pp → post -47pp vs fee BE 49¢: -48.5pp | $-60 | COLLECTING 4/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| WHALE_FOLLOW CLOB honest | 4 | 50.0% | 38¢ | - raw +12.0pp pre -5pp → post +12pp vs fee BE 40¢: +10.0pp | $+54 | COLLECTING 4/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERSOLD_UP CLOB honest | 4 | 25.0% | 49¢ | - raw -24.1pp vs fee BE 51¢: -26.1pp | $-67 | COLLECTING 4/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 45¢ | - raw +4.5pp vs fee BE 47¢: +2.5pp | $+11 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| QUANTUM_BRAIN CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 52¢ | - raw -2.0pp vs fee BE 54¢: -4.0pp | $+30 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| REGIME_AWARE_BTC CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 44¢ | - raw +5.5pp pre -3pp → post +6pp vs fee BE 46¢: +3.5pp | $-1 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| REVERSE_FADE_KELLY CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 52¢ | - raw -2.0pp vs fee BE 54¢: -4.0pp | $-7 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_1TO1 CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 45¢ | - raw +4.5pp vs fee BE 47¢: +2.5pp | $+11 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| FADE_KELLY CLOB honest | 2 | 50.0% | 49¢ | - raw +1.0pp vs fee BE 51¢: -1.0pp | $-2 | COLLECTING 2/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2 v2 gates | 1 | 100.0% | 44¢ | - raw +55.6pp vs fee BE 46¢: +53.6pp | $+38 | COLLECTING 1/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_V2 v2 gates | 1 | 0.0% | 50¢ | - raw -50.0pp pre +5pp → post -50pp vs fee BE 52¢: -52.0pp | $-40 | COLLECTING 1/50 bets toward deploy gate |
Unverified (signal fills - confirm before trusting)
| Bot | n | WR | Avg¢ | Conservative | PnL | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| default unverified post | 6 | 50.0% | 50¢ | -31.1pp raw +0.2pp vs fee BE 52¢: -1.8pp | $+0 | COLLECTING 6/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| MART_BUST_TEST unverified post | 5 | 40.0% | 48¢ | -36.0pp raw -7.8pp pre -1pp → post -8pp vs fee BE 50¢: -9.8pp | $-2 | COLLECTING 5/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_CAP55 unverified post | 5 | 0.0% | 55¢ | -55.0pp raw -55.0pp pre +3pp → post -55pp vs fee BE 57¢: -57.0pp | $-200 | COLLECTING 5/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_BOOK_FAKE_FADE unverified post | 4 | 100.0% | 54¢ | - raw +45.5pp pre -1pp → post +46pp vs fee BE 56¢: +43.5pp | $+56 | COLLECTING 4/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| INVERSE_BINANCE_FRONT_RUN unverified post | 1 | 0.0% | 48¢ | - raw -48.0pp was +10pp pre-patch → fiction vs fee BE 50¢: -50.0pp | $-30 | COLLECTING 1/50 bets toward deploy gate |
| CONFLUENCE_5 unverified post | 1 | 100.0% | 53¢ | - raw +47.0pp vs fee BE 55¢: +45.0pp | $+22 | COLLECTING 1/50 bets toward deploy gate |
12 bots ≤−3pp post-patch excess - pre-patch green on those was likely signal-price fiction.
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