Polymarket Monitor

₿ BTC Up/Down 5m

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BTC arena - per-account scoreboard

🔄 Inverse-CLAUDE-BTC-5M ($5k · anti-edge ~57% WR)?

🔄 Inverse-CLAUDE-BTC-5M ($5k · anti-edge ~57% WR)

🎓 Plain EnglishIf Claude says Up, this bets Down. Inverse follower — exploits if Claude is anti-edge.

⚙ FORMULA
Bet OPPOSITE of whatever CLAUDE_BTC_5M would bet

📈 FIRES ~4.0/day ~28/wk ~120/mo

(INVERSE_CLAUDE_BTC_5M) +0.00%

⬆️ MTF Deep-Oversold Up ($5k · BT 55.4%)?

⬆️ MTF Deep-Oversold Up ($5k · BT 55.4%)

🎓 Plain EnglishThree independent oversold signals all firing: RSI low, price below lower BB, volatility elevated. Triple-confirmation reversion bet.

⚙ FORMULA
rsi_14<33 AND bb_pos<-0.92 AND atr_ratio>1.02 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~9.5/day ~66/wk ~284/mo

(MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERSOLD_UP) -1.34%

⬇️ MTF Deep-Overbought Down ($5k · BT 55.1%)?

⬇️ MTF Deep-Overbought Down ($5k · BT 55.1%)

🎓 Plain EnglishMirror of OVERSOLD_UP. Triple-confirmation that BTC is overbought; bet on pullback.

⚙ FORMULA
rsi_14>67 AND bb_pos>0.92 AND atr_ratio>1.02 → bet Down

📈 FIRES ~6.3/day ~44/wk ~189/mo

(MTF_RSI_BB_DEEP_OVERBOUGHT_DN) -0.56%

📉 MTF Wide-Overbought Down ($5k · BT 54.0%)?

📉 MTF Wide-Overbought Down ($5k · BT 54.0%)

🎓 Plain EnglishLooser version of OVERBOUGHT_DN: any meaningfully overbought reading triggers.

⚙ FORMULA
rsi_14>60 AND bb_pos>0.65 AND atr_ratio>1.02 → bet Down

📈 FIRES ~13/day ~91/wk ~389/mo

(MTF_RSI_BB_WIDE_DOWN) +2.45%

🔁 K1 Down-streak + RSI<29 Up ($5k · BT 55.5%)?

🔁 K1 Down-streak + RSI<29 Up ($5k · BT 55.5%)

🎓 Plain EnglishEven just 1 down candle is enough IF RSI is deeply oversold (<29). Catches sharp single-candle dumps that reverse fast.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥1 down candle AND rsi_14 < 29 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~15/day ~108/wk ~461/mo

(STREAK_K1_RSI_FADE_UP) +0.19%

🔁 Inverse-WHALE-FOLLOW ($5k · anti-edge)?

🔁 Inverse-WHALE-FOLLOW ($5k · anti-edge)

🎓 Plain EnglishLegacy inverse: CLOB minority band (20–65¢). Different gates than WHALE_FOLLOW — kept for history.

⚙ FORMULA
holder_skew >= +50% → bet AGAINST the leading side (DOWN if Up leads)

📈 FIRES ~5.0/day ~35/wk ~150/mo

(INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW) -0.43%

[V2-SHADOW] Fusion-Fade-Down-BB+RSI-K4 ($5k . engine +5.18pp)?

[V2-SHADOW] Fusion-Fade-Down-BB+RSI-K4 ($5k . engine +5.18pp)

🎓 Plain EnglishFades a 4+ consecutive Down streak ONLY when both technical indicators (Bollinger Bands deep oversold + RSI low) confirm. The engine's 9-yr backtest projects +5.18pp edge over baseline because requiring BOTH gates filters out half the false signals each indicator generates alone. This is a V2 shadow test - if it holds positive edge at n=50, it auto-promotes to canonical strategy.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (Down streak K>=4) AND (BB position <= -0.85) AND (RSI <= 35) AND (BTC momentum > -0.15%) AND (seconds_left in [30,240]) AND (target price in [25c,65c]); side = Up; size = $30; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~5.5/day ~38/wk ~165/mo

(FUSION_FADE_DOWN_BB_RSI_K4_V2) +0.00%

[V2-SHADOW] Ensemble-Vote-4 ($5k . engine +5.18pp)?

[V2-SHADOW] Ensemble-Vote-4 ($5k . engine +5.18pp)

🎓 Plain EnglishMeta-bot that follows fleet consensus when at least 4 different strategies independently agree. Stricter threshold than STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER (3 votes), so fires less often but with higher per-bet confidence. 9-yr backtest projects +5.18pp edge. Tests whether fleet ensemble voting has real predictive power or is just self-referential.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (>=4 distinct peer bots betting same side on this market in last 3 min) AND (majority side dominant) AND (seconds_left in [30,240]); side = majority direction; size = $30; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~57/day ~396/wk ~1698/mo

(ENSEMBLE_VOTE_4_V2) -7.51%

[V2-SHADOW] Fusion-Oversold+Streak-K1 ($5k . engine +5.13pp)?

[V2-SHADOW] Fusion-Oversold+Streak-K1 ($5k . engine +5.13pp)

🎓 Plain EnglishCombines deep-oversold technical signal (RSI + BB + ATR all confirming) with the much-relaxed K>=1 Down streak gate. Fires more often than the K=4 fusions because most market dips show at least one Down bar. Engine projects +5.13pp edge in the 9-year backtest. V2 shadow test - auto-promotes if live edge holds at n=50.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (RSI <= 33) AND (BB position <= -0.92) AND (ATR ratio >= 1.02) AND (Down streak K>=1) AND (BTC momentum > -0.15%) AND (seconds_left in [30,240]) AND (target price in [25c,65c]); side = Up; size = $30; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~8.3/day ~58/wk ~248/mo

(FUSION_OVERSOLD_STREAK_K1_V2) +0.00%

[V2-SHADOW] Streak-Follow ($5k . flat . backtest +$1.4k)?

[V2-SHADOW] Streak-Follow ($5k . flat . backtest +$1.4k)

🎓 Plain EnglishFollows the direction of the prior BTC bar's close. Bets Up on Down streaks reversing, Down on Up streaks reversing. CLOB backtest: +$1,429 over 6,016 flat bets (per-bet edge only +$0.24, tiny but real). CRITICAL: this strategy uses FLAT sizing because martingale doubling would lose -$7,525 to a 12-bet losing streak. Safety brake auto-pauses after 8 consec losses.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (seconds_left in [30,240]) AND (consec_losses < 8 safety brake) AND (streak_direction in {Up,Down}) AND (target price in [25c,70c]); side = streak_direction; size = $30 FLAT (no martingale); bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~200/day ~1400/wk ~6,000/mo

(STREAK_FOLLOW_V2) +0.00%

[V2-SHADOW] Down-Biased ($5k . regime-aware . backtest +$1k)?

[V2-SHADOW] Down-Biased ($5k . regime-aware . backtest +$1k)

🎓 Plain EnglishAlways bets Down to exploit the bearish 30-day BTC regime (ALWAYS_DOWN won +$1,073 over 6,016 flat bets in CLOB backtest). REGIME KILL SWITCH pauses the bot if 24h BTC momentum exceeds +1% (sustained bull regime). Defers to Up signal on extreme oversold (RSI<=30 + BB<=-0.90). If the regime stays bearish this bot prints money; if BTC pivots to bull, the kill switch saves it.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (seconds_left in [30,240]) AND (24h BTC momentum <= +1%) AND (consec_losses < 8 safety brake) AND NOT (RSI<=30 AND BB<=-0.90 deep oversold) AND (Down price in [30c,70c]); side = Down (always); size = $30 FLAT; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~150/day ~1050/wk ~4,500/mo

(DOWN_BIASED_FOLLOWER_V2) +0.00%

[V2-SHADOW] BTC-Velocity-Front-Run ($5k . lag arb)?

[V2-SHADOW] BTC-Velocity-Front-Run ($5k . lag arb)

🎓 Plain EnglishExploits the 1-5 second lag between Binance BTC moving and Polymarket re-pricing. When Binance shows strong AND accelerating momentum but PM is still near 50¢, we bet the Binance direction before PM catches up. Inspired by BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2 which showed +$4.51/bet (highest in fleet). Fires ~2-3 times/day on clear acceleration. The 'accelerating' requirement filters out random walks - we want directional conviction.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (seconds_left in [200,270] = first 60s of market) AND (|5m mom| >= 0.2%) AND (5m mom > 30m mom * 1.2 = accelerating) AND (PM hasn't priced in: target <= 60c) AND (target >= 30c); side = direction of 5m mom; size = $30 FLAT; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~2-3/day ~17/wk ~75/mo

(BTC_VELOCITY_FRONT_RUN_V2) +0.00%

[V2-SHADOW] Second-Wind-Reversal ($5k . late-window)?

[V2-SHADOW] Second-Wind-Reversal ($5k . late-window)

🎓 Plain EnglishOutside-the-box late-window arb. When PM has already heavily priced one direction (>65% or <35%) but BTC just reversed in the last 30 seconds, the PM hasn't updated yet - there's a brief mispricing window. We bet AGAINST the PM bias. Rare (~1-2 fires/day) but high-confidence because we only fire when BOTH conditions are extreme. Captures intra-window reversal alpha that PM's CLOB doesn't react to fast enough.

⚙ FORMULA
fire = (seconds_left in [30,90] = last 60s) AND (PM_Up >= 65% AND BTC mom_30s <= -0.1% → bet Down) OR (PM_Up <= 35% AND mom_30s >= 0.1% → bet Up); size = $30 FLAT; bankroll = $5k

📈 FIRES ~1-2/day ~10/wk ~45/mo

(SECOND_WIND_REVERSAL_V2) +0.00%

[META] Strongest-Signal-Follower ($5k . meta-fleet consensus)?

[META] Strongest-Signal-Follower ($5k . meta-fleet consensus)

🎓 Plain EnglishMeta-bot that bets whatever the 'Strongest Fleet Signals' panel recommends. Tracks whether following the system's own consensus has real edge or is just self-referential noise. If this bot makes money, the fleet consensus is genuinely predictive. If it loses, the consensus is overfit to past behavior.

⚙ FORMULA
consensus score = sum(9-yr Wilson LB excess) across positive-edge bots betting same side on this market in last 5 min; fire on side with score >= 3pp AND >= 1.5x other side

📈 FIRES ~64/day ~448/wk ~1920/mo

(STRONGEST_SIGNAL_FOLLOWER) -6.99%

🔁 Inverse-WHALE 1:1 ($5k · mirror)?

🔁 Inverse-WHALE 1:1 ($5k · mirror)

🎓 Plain EnglishFires whenever WHALE_FOLLOW would: seconds [20,210], |skew|>=0.35, majority price 35–75¢, momentum veto. Bets minority at $40. Signal-fill like WHALE.

⚙ FORMULA
Perfect 1:1 mirror of WHALE_FOLLOW — same gates, opposite side

📈 FIRES ~5.0/day ~35/wk ~150/mo

(INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_1TO1) +3.22%

🔁 Inverse-WHALE v2 ($5k · 45-55¢)?

🔁 Inverse-WHALE v2 ($5k · 45-55¢)

🎓 Plain EnglishTighter price band: only fires when minority side is fairly priced. Lower drawdown.

⚙ FORMULA
Same as IWF but with CLOB price gate [0.45-0.55] and skew ≥0.50

📈 FIRES ~3.0/day ~21/wk ~90/mo

(INVERSE_WHALE_FOLLOW_V2) +3.08%

🎯 Inverse-HIGH-PRICE-LATE ($5k · agent fade)?

🎯 Inverse-HIGH-PRICE-LATE ($5k · agent fade)

🎓 Plain EnglishFades expensive late-window Claude bets — they were historically anti-edge.

⚙ FORMULA
If a CLAUDE bot bets at price > 0.60 in last 60s → bet OPPOSITE

📈 FIRES ~2.0/day ~14/wk ~60/mo

(INVERSE_HIGH_PRICE_LATE) +0.00%

🎯 Inverse-CLAUDE-CONF80 ($5k · conf≥80% only)?

🎯 Inverse-CLAUDE-CONF80 ($5k · conf≥80% only)

🎓 Plain EnglishOnly inverts Claude's HIGH-confidence bets. Hypothesis: confidence is anti-correlated to outcome.

⚙ FORMULA
Inverse-Claude but only when Claude's confidence ≥ 80%

📈 FIRES ~4.0/day ~28/wk ~120/mo

(INVERSE_CLAUDE_CONF80) +0.00%

🤝 Claude-Follow-Narrow ($5k · narrow-band copy)?

🤝 Claude-Follow-Narrow ($5k · narrow-band copy)

🎓 Plain EnglishMirror Claude's direction, only fires in [0.40-0.55] price range.

⚙ FORMULA
Follow Claude's bets but only in narrow CLOB price band

📈 FIRES ~3.0/day ~21/wk ~90/mo

(CLAUDE_FOLLOW_NARROW) +0.00%

🔁 Streak-Rev 3+ ($5k · K≥3 mean revert)?

🔁 Streak-Rev 3+ ($5k · K≥3 mean revert)

🎓 Plain EnglishStreak-reversal bot. Fires on any 3+ same-direction run, bets the opposite side.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥3 streak → bet reversal direction

📈 FIRES ~50/day ~347/wk ~1487/mo

(STREAK_REV_3PLUS) -1.22%

📐 Streak-Rev-Kelly ($5k · K-scaled size)?

📐 Streak-Rev-Kelly ($5k · K-scaled size)

🎓 Plain EnglishSame as STREAK_REV_3PLUS but bet size grows with streak length. K=4 bets bigger than K=3.

⚙ FORMULA
Streak reversal + Kelly-sized bets scaled by K

📈 FIRES ~50/day ~347/wk ~1487/mo

(STREAK_REV_KELLY) -0.35%

🎚 Regime-Aware ($5k · low-vol fader)?

🎚 Regime-Aware ($5k · low-vol fader)

🎓 Plain EnglishIn low-vol regimes, fades. In high-vol, follows momentum. Adapts dynamically.

⚙ FORMULA
Adapts gate to detected vol regime (low/mid/high)

📈 FIRES ~54/day ~378/wk ~1620/mo

(REGIME_AWARE_BTC) -2.78%

📕 Book-Fake-Fade ($3k · iceberg fade v0)?

📕 Book-Fake-Fade ($3k · iceberg fade v0)

🎓 Plain EnglishWatches order book for fake walls (large bids that disappear when hit). Bets against the direction the fake wall was defending.

⚙ FORMULA
Detect iceberg bid/ask pattern → bet against the fake liquidity

📈 FIRES ~10/day ~70/wk ~300/mo

(BOOK_FAKE_FADE) -2.35%

🏆 Confluence-PEAK ($5k · hr{3,9-12,22} · BT 61.7%)?

🏆 Confluence-PEAK ($5k · hr{3,9-12,22} · BT 61.7%)

🎓 Plain EnglishLike CONFLUENCE_5 but only during UTC hours where 9-year backtest shows the strongest edge.

⚙ FORMULA
Confluence-5 + UTC hour in {3, 9-12, 22} (historical edge hours)

📈 FIRES ~10/day ~70/wk ~300/mo

(CONFLUENCE_PEAK) +0.00%

💰 Confluence-KELLY ($5k · ¼-Kelly per hour)?

💰 Confluence-KELLY ($5k · ¼-Kelly per hour)

🎓 Plain EnglishBet size = (edge × Kelly fraction) / 4 — conservative quarter-Kelly to avoid drawdown.

⚙ FORMULA
Confluence-5 with quarter-Kelly position sizing per hour

📈 FIRES ~3.9/day ~27/wk ~116/mo

(CONFLUENCE_KELLY) +0.00%

⚡ Late-Edge ($5k · last-60s · ~82% WR target)?

⚡ Late-Edge ($5k · last-60s · ~82% WR target)

🎓 Plain EnglishLate-window momentum bot. Bets in final minute when BTC has clear direction. Designed for high-WR sniper plays.

⚙ FORMULA
seconds_left < 60 AND clear directional signal → bet that direction

(LATE_EDGE) +0.00%

🔥 Deep-Oversold ($5k · K≥7+all-extreme · ~73% WR)?

🔥 Deep-Oversold ($5k · K≥7+all-extreme · ~73% WR)

🎓 Plain EnglishExtreme version of FADE_DOWN_RSI_K4. Requires 7+ candles + every technical indicator at extreme oversold. Rare but expected ~73% WR.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥7 down-streak AND all RSI/BB/ATR extreme → bet Up

(DEEP_OVERSOLD) +0.00%

🟡 Binance-FrontRun ($5k · momentum · ~80% WR)?

🟡 Binance-FrontRun ($5k · momentum · ~80% WR)

🎓 Plain EnglishWhen Binance BTC has a sharp upward move in the last 30s AND Polymarket hasn't yet priced it in, front-run the price update. Exploits MM repricing lag. WARNING: 9yr backtest shows momentum-follow is -4.7pp anti-edge on its own.

⚙ FORMULA
btc_momentum_30s > +0.05% AND PM Up_price < 0.60 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~2.5/day ~18/wk ~75/mo

(BINANCE_FRONT_RUN) -5.33%

🟡 Binance-FrontRun v2 ($5k · 45-62¢)?

🟡 Binance-FrontRun v2 ($5k · 45-62¢)

🎓 Plain EnglishTighter version: only fires in the close-strike zone where MM lag is biggest.

⚙ FORMULA
Same as BFR but with CLOB price gate [0.45-0.62] and momentum ≥0.04

📈 FIRES ~2.5/day ~18/wk ~75/mo

(BINANCE_FRONT_RUN_V2) +0.75%

💎 Confluence-5 ($5k · 5+ signals · BT 56.7%)?

💎 Confluence-5 ($5k · 5+ signals · BT 56.7%)

🎓 Plain EnglishOnly fires when at least 5 of 8 tracked signals agree. Highest-conviction bot in the fleet.

⚙ FORMULA
5+ independent signals align (RSI + BB + ATR + holder + streak) → bet that direction

(CONFLUENCE_5) +0.44%

🐋 Whale-Follow ($5k · top-PnL skew · ~67% WR)?

🐋 Whale-Follow ($5k · top-PnL skew · ~67% WR)

🎓 Plain EnglishOpposite of INVERSE_WHALE — bets WITH the holder majority. 9yr data shows this loses (-5pp); the inverse is the real edge.

⚙ FORMULA
holder_skew >= +50% → bet WITH the leading side

📈 FIRES ~10/day ~70/wk ~300/mo

(WHALE_FOLLOW) -5.36%

💚 Arb-Intra ($5k · Up+Down<0.99 · ~75% WR)?

💚 Arb-Intra ($5k · Up+Down<0.99 · ~75% WR)

🎓 Plain EnglishIntra-market arbitrage: when the sum of Up and Down prices is less than $1.00, buying the cheaper side guarantees positive expected value.

⚙ FORMULA
Up_price + Down_price < 0.99 → buy the cheaper side

(ARB_INTRA) +0.00%

🎯 FADE_DOWN K8 + RSI sniper ($5k · BT 59.6%)?

🎯 FADE_DOWN K8 + RSI sniper ($5k · BT 59.6%)

🎓 Plain English8+ down candles. Extremely rare; when it triggers, mean-reversion bet is nearly forced.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥8 down-streak AND rsi_14 < 35 → bet Up

(FADE_DOWN_RSI_K8) +0.00%

📈 FADE_DOWN K4 + RSI volume ($5k · BT 58.3%)?

📈 FADE_DOWN K4 + RSI volume ($5k · BT 58.3%)

🎓 Plain EnglishAfter 4+ consecutive down candles AND momentum (RSI) is exhausted, bet BTC will reverse upward. RSI<35 = textbook oversold.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥4 down-streak AND rsi_14 < 35 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~6.3/day ~44/wk ~190/mo

(FADE_DOWN_RSI_K4) +0.00%

🎯 FADE_DOWN K4 + RSI≤30 tight ($5k · BT 57.9%)?

🎯 FADE_DOWN K4 + RSI≤30 tight ($5k · BT 57.9%)

🎓 Plain EnglishSame as RSI_K4 but tighter RSI<30 (deeper oversold). Fewer fires, higher quality.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥4 down-streak AND rsi_14 < 30 → bet Up

(FADE_DOWN_RSI30_K4) +0.00%

📉 FADE_DOWN K4 + BB lower band ($5k · BT 57.6%)?

📉 FADE_DOWN K4 + BB lower band ($5k · BT 57.6%)

🎓 Plain EnglishAfter Bitcoin has dropped 4+ candles in a row AND the price is far below its recent average (bottom Bollinger band), bet it'll bounce back up. Mean reversion at oversold extremes.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥4 down-streak AND bb_position < -0.80 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~7.0/day ~49/wk ~210/mo

(FADE_DOWN_BB_K4) +0.00%

🎯 FADE_DOWN K6 + RSI medium ($5k · BT 57.6%)?

🎯 FADE_DOWN K6 + RSI medium ($5k · BT 57.6%)

🎓 Plain EnglishSame as RSI_K4 but requires 6+ down candles. Rarer, stronger reversal signal.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥6 down-streak AND rsi_14 < 35 → bet Up

(FADE_DOWN_RSI_K6) +0.00%

💥 FADE_DOWN K4 + ATR high-vol ($5k · BT 56.9%)?

💥 FADE_DOWN K4 + ATR high-vol ($5k · BT 56.9%)

🎓 Plain English4+ down candles AND volatility is elevated (current ATR > 110% of 50-bar avg). Volatile drops reverse harder.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥4 down-streak AND atr_ratio > 1.10 → bet Up

📈 FIRES ~6.3/day ~44/wk ~189/mo

(FADE_DOWN_ATR_K4) +0.00%

⬇ FADE_DOWN K4 + below 4h SMA ($5k · BT 56.7%)?

⬇ FADE_DOWN K4 + below 4h SMA ($5k · BT 56.7%)

🎓 Plain English4+ down candles AND price is below 4-hour moving average. Counter-trend bounce bet.

⚙ FORMULA
K≥4 down-streak AND close < SMA(4h) → bet Up

(FADE_DOWN_4H_K4) +0.00%

⚡ Crisis-Bayes-Skew ($10k)?

⚡ Crisis-Bayes-Skew ($10k)

🎓 Plain EnglishDesigned to replace the entire zoo. Uses Bayesian inference + market-crisis filter + holder skew weighting. Single bot meant to consolidate the strategy fleet.

⚙ FORMULA
Synthesis bot: Bayesian update + crisis detection + skew filter

📈 FIRES ~12/day ~87/wk ~372/mo

(CRISIS_BAYES_SKEW) -6.02%