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0xe639e41094bbeae18f3e6d1790c17299183f082a

SCD-807
TRACKEDT24 SOURCES
Sources: local:god_system_copyable|local:god_system_wallets|local:god_system_wallets_api|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$456.8k
193W / 55L · WR 77.8%
Open exposure (live)
$742.9k
8 open · unrealized +$6.7k
Lifetime turnover
$831.95M
254 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$73.0k
−$45.7k
Realized
+$456.8k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$6.6k
Profit capture (brain)
100%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
124
local DB
First → Last trade
2024-07-23
→ 2026-05-16

🟢 Live open positions

8 live · $742,911 current value · unrealized +$6.7k
MarketSideSharesAvg priceCur priceEntry oddsCur oddsCostValuePnLPnL %Expires
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aft…No347,885$0.995$0.99899.5%99.8%$346,077$347,015$+938+0.3%2026-06-17
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No217,225$0.988$0.99698.8%99.6%$214,566$216,356$+1,790+0.8%1970-01-01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No77,152$0.917$0.95791.7%95.7%$70,758$73,795$+3,037+4.3%2026-12-31
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dec…No73,733$0.994$0.99799.4%99.7%$73,307$73,511$+205+0.3%2026-06-17
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December…No20,015$0.920$0.94592.0%94.5%$18,413$18,914$+500+2.7%2026-01-07
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?…No10,809$0.991$0.99699.1%99.6%$10,711$10,765$+54+0.5%2026-01-07
GTA 6 launch postponed again?No3,114$0.753$0.82075.3%82.0%$2,347$2,554$+207+8.8%2026-11-19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No0$0.850$0.90585.0%90.5%$0$0$+0+6.4%2026-12-31

📡 Live activity feed

100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any wallet
WhenTypeSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-15 05:19TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No1,238$0.995$1.2k0xcdac0a…
2026-06-15 04:43TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo1,250$0.995$1.2k0xc37042…
2026-06-15 04:13TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No6$0.995$5.970x1c5443…
2026-06-15 03:53TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo6$0.995$5.970xaf1741…
2026-06-15 03:37TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo5,000$0.995$5.0k0xa3cc5b…
2026-06-15 03:15TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No6$0.995$5.970x58e177…
2026-06-15 03:14TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo1,250$0.995$1.2k0xa4d6d3…
2026-06-15 03:13TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No3,500$0.995$3.5k0x7b528d…
2026-06-15 02:11TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No20,000$0.995$19.9k0xbc9a13…
2026-06-15 02:06TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No20,000$0.995$19.9k0xd9b31d…
2026-06-15 00:45MAKER_REBATE--1$0.000$1.390xfb584c…
2026-06-15 00:00REWARD--12$0.000$12.450xf602ac…
2026-06-14 19:12TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo7,207$0.993$7.2k0x6cc1d3…
2026-06-14 19:12TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo8,758$0.993$8.7k0x6cc1d3…
2026-06-14 00:45MAKER_REBATE--1$0.000$1.310xef5ed5…
2026-06-14 00:00REWARD--11$0.000$11.410x799e20…
2026-06-13 18:02TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo5,218$0.993$5.2k0xdc83d8…
2026-06-13 01:31TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes5,940$0.993$5.9k0x7200c2…
2026-06-13 01:08TRADEBUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No553$0.990$547.940x49023f…
2026-06-13 00:54TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo380$0.995$378.100xdaed74…
2026-06-13 00:45MAKER_REBATE--32$0.000$32.280x5a4b71…
2026-06-13 00:42TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo380$0.995$378.100x6a7f3f…
2026-06-13 00:34TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo0$0.995$0.480xf72b23…
2026-06-13 00:34TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo600$0.995$597.000x3d3591…
2026-06-13 00:27TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps aYes3,646$0.003$10.940x01e5a1…
2026-06-13 00:27TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo304$0.995$302.480x71270b…
2026-06-13 00:24TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes2$0.993$2.140xbc4d75…
2026-06-13 00:21TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo304$0.995$302.480x6008b0…
2026-06-13 00:08TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes140$0.993$139.430xbf9814…
2026-06-13 00:00REWARD--5$0.000$5.260x4f89b5…
2026-06-12 23:52TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes125$0.993$124.120x634ff8…
2026-06-12 23:50TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo380$0.995$378.100x69bca3…
2026-06-12 23:50TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes94$0.993$93.340x16dbeb…
2026-06-12 23:44TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo0$0.995$0.150xa32989…
2026-06-12 23:43TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes1$0.993$1.180x9d5b8f…
2026-06-12 23:43TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo1$0.995$0.630x7962a5…
2026-06-12 23:40TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo51$0.995$50.660x4313c7…
2026-06-12 23:40TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo51$0.995$50.660x11ae7d…
2026-06-12 23:39TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes100$0.993$99.300xe7fb19…
2026-06-12 23:35TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo1$0.995$0.980x49be8a…
2026-06-12 23:22TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes55$0.993$54.620x79df2a…
2026-06-12 23:19TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes2,661$0.993$2.6k0x16868b…
2026-06-12 23:07TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo2$0.995$1.690x0774f8…
2026-06-12 23:07TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo6$0.995$5.970x6b71e5…
2026-06-12 23:06TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo22$0.995$21.920x289fc5…
2026-06-12 23:06TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo22$0.995$21.930x18d4ea…
2026-06-12 22:39TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo200$0.995$199.000xd9ca7c…
2026-06-12 22:37TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo36$0.995$35.980xef4d5d…
2026-06-12 22:34TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo38$0.995$37.980x4d62d6…
2026-06-12 22:34TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo38$0.995$37.980xe2ddbe…
2026-06-12 22:33TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates afYes90,881$0.993$90.2k0x527fbf…
2026-06-12 22:33TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo58$0.995$58.100xdb1228…
2026-06-12 22:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo58$0.995$58.110x51dde3…
2026-06-12 22:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo75$0.995$74.730xa10f88…
2026-06-12 22:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo8$0.995$7.660x53bc07…
2026-06-12 22:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo48$0.995$47.660xa06ee1…
2026-06-12 22:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo333$0.995$331.600x109a35…
2026-06-12 22:23TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo664$0.995$660.220x13d27c…
2026-06-12 22:18TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo2,000$0.995$2.0k0x477498…
2026-06-12 22:15TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo500$0.995$497.500xa768e9…
2026-06-12 22:13TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo952$0.995$947.240x093a1a…
2026-06-12 21:39TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo800$0.995$796.000x258903…
2026-06-12 21:39TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo211$0.995$209.940x088284…
2026-06-12 21:30TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo0$0.995$0.390x3c5d68…
2026-06-12 21:17TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo64$0.995$63.360xed08bd…
2026-06-12 21:17TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo64$0.995$63.370x2a9bf1…
2026-06-12 21:16TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo60$0.995$59.260x1e4fad…
2026-06-12 21:16TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo104$0.995$103.890x30df98…
2026-06-12 21:16TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo37$0.995$37.300xb11136…
2026-06-12 21:16TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo45$0.995$44.370x049123…
2026-06-12 21:03TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo1,683$0.995$1.7k0x823f6a…
2026-06-12 21:02TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo261$0.995$259.290x29452c…
2026-06-12 20:41TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo1$0.995$0.910x03e1fd…
2026-06-12 20:39TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo1$0.995$0.720xd37f53…
2026-06-12 20:32TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo808$0.995$803.960xd7e559…
2026-06-12 20:29TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo200$0.995$199.000x0148de…
2026-06-12 20:05TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo18,847$0.995$18.8k0xd763d6…
2026-06-12 20:02TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo5$0.993$4.980xb4977e…
2026-06-12 20:02TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three dNo4,330$0.993$4.3k0x2a5b98…
2026-06-12 19:38TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps aNo2,000$0.995$2.0k0x9a6c4c…

Performance breakdown

-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL

Performance calendar

click a day to see trades · navigate months

-

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat

Cumulative realized PnL

per closed-position exit, in chronological order

Polling state

Last polled
2026-06-15 05:33:20
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 05:19
Backfill
✓ done

Calibration - WR by probability bucket

gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])
0.5
0.8

Open positions

4 open
MarketOutcomeSharesEntryLastUnrealized
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?No453030.995-$0.00
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next thre…No345940.993-$0.00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp…Yes03645.843-$0.00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bp…No1270170.995-$0.00

Closed positions

most recent 50
Exit whenMarketOutcomeSharesEntryExitRealized
2026-06-12 16:51Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bp…Yes10270.0030.003+$0.00

Recent trades

100 of 124 shown
WhenSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-15 05:19BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No12380.995$1.2k0xcdac0a…
2026-06-15 04:43BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No12500.995$1.2k0xc37042…
2026-06-15 04:13BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No60.995$5.970x1c5443…
2026-06-15 03:53BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No60.995$5.970xaf1741…
2026-06-15 03:37BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No50000.995$5.0k0xa3cc5b…
2026-06-15 03:15BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No60.995$5.970x58e177…
2026-06-15 03:14BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No12500.995$1.2k0xa4d6d3…
2026-06-15 03:13BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No35000.995$3.5k0x7b528d…
2026-06-15 02:11BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No200000.995$19.9k0xbc9a13…
2026-06-15 02:06BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No200000.995$19.9k0xd9b31d…
2026-06-14 19:12BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No72070.993$7.2k0x6cc1d3…
2026-06-14 19:12BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No87580.993$8.7k0x6cc1d3…
2026-06-13 18:02BUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next…No52180.993$5.2k0xdc83d8…
2026-06-13 01:31SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes59400.993$5.9k0x7200c2…
2026-06-13 01:08BUYKevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meet…No5530.990$547.940x49023f…
2026-06-13 00:54BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No3800.995$378.100xdaed74…
2026-06-13 00:42BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No3800.995$378.100x6a7f3f…
2026-06-13 00:34BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No00.995$0.480xf72b23…
2026-06-13 00:34BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No6000.995$597.000x3d3591…
2026-06-13 00:27SELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by …Yes36460.003$10.940x01e5a1…
2026-06-13 00:27BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No3040.995$302.480x71270b…
2026-06-13 00:24SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes20.993$2.140xbc4d75…
2026-06-13 00:21BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No3040.995$302.480x6008b0…
2026-06-13 00:08SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes1400.993$139.430xbf9814…
2026-06-12 23:52SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes1250.993$124.120x634ff8…
2026-06-12 23:50BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No3800.995$378.100x69bca3…
2026-06-12 23:50SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes940.993$93.340x16dbeb…
2026-06-12 23:44BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No00.995$0.150xa32989…
2026-06-12 23:43SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes10.993$1.180x9d5b8f…
2026-06-12 23:43BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No10.995$0.630x7962a5…
2026-06-12 23:40BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No510.995$50.660x4313c7…
2026-06-12 23:40BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No510.995$50.660x11ae7d…
2026-06-12 23:39SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes1000.993$99.300xe7fb19…
2026-06-12 23:35BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No10.995$0.980x49be8a…
2026-06-12 23:22SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes550.993$54.620x79df2a…
2026-06-12 23:19SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes26610.993$2.6k0x16868b…
2026-06-12 23:07BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No20.995$1.690x0774f8…
2026-06-12 23:07BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No60.995$5.970x6b71e5…
2026-06-12 23:06BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No220.995$21.920x289fc5…
2026-06-12 23:06BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No220.995$21.930x18d4ea…
2026-06-12 22:39BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No2000.995$199.000xd9ca7c…
2026-06-12 22:37BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No360.995$35.980xef4d5d…
2026-06-12 22:34BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No380.995$37.980x4d62d6…
2026-06-12 22:34BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No380.995$37.980xe2ddbe…
2026-06-12 22:33SELLWill there be no change in Fed interest …Yes908810.993$90.2k0x527fbf…
2026-06-12 22:33BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No580.995$58.100xdb1228…
2026-06-12 22:32BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No580.995$58.110x51dde3…
2026-06-12 22:32BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No750.995$74.730xa10f88…
2026-06-12 22:32BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No80.995$7.660x53bc07…
2026-06-12 22:32BUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by …No480.995$47.660xa06ee1…

By category (closed only)

CategoryN closedRealized PnL
Other1+$0.00

Coordinated-buy involvement

events that included this wallet
WhenMarketWalletsNotionalDiversity
2026-06-04 00:13MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$74.8k0.65
2026-06-04 00:03MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$5.5k0.71
2026-06-04 00:01MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$7.5k0.71
2026-06-03 22:50MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$130.0k0.63
2026-06-03 22:45MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$27.8k0.63
2026-06-03 22:43MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$24.7k0.62
2026-06-03 22:06MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$1.54M0.83
2026-06-03 22:05MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$1.54M0.83
2026-06-03 22:02MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$1.71M0.64
2026-06-03 21:33MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…16$1.32M0.75
2026-06-03 20:41MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$308.9k0.91
2026-06-03 20:40MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$632.0k0.91
2026-06-03 20:33MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$992.1k0.91
2026-06-03 17:18MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$102.5k0.90
2026-06-02 00:43MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$154.0k0.33
2026-06-01 21:38MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$236.3k0.77
2026-06-01 21:36MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…7$227.4k0.81
2026-06-01 21:32MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$837.3k0.77
2026-06-01 21:30MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$681.4k0.83
2026-06-01 21:29MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…7$841.9k0.78