0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
no username
TRACKEDVPST25 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:filter_3.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
$0.00
0W / 0L · WR -
Open exposure (live)
$75.2k
49 open · unrealized -$1.6k
Lifetime turnover
$0.00
0 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$0.00
−$0.00
Realized
$0.00
Unrealized (local approx)
$0.00
Profit capture (brain)
-
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
5
local DB
First → Last trade
-
→ -
🟢 Live open positions
49 live · $75,153 current value · unrealized -$1.6k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Ele… | No | 50,000 | $0.500 | $0.857 | 50.0% | 85.7% | $25,000 | $42,825 | $+17,825 | +71.3% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Ele… | Yes | 50,000 | $0.500 | $0.143 | 50.0% | 14.3% | $25,000 | $7,175 | $-17,825 | -71.3% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 3,917 | $0.668 | $0.952 | 66.8% | 95.2% | $2,618 | $3,729 | $+1,111 | +42.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of J… | Yes | 48,117 | $0.155 | $0.065 | 15.5% | 6.5% | $7,473 | $3,128 | $-4,345 | -58.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 2,076 | $0.882 | $0.949 | 88.2% | 94.8% | $1,831 | $1,969 | $+138 | +7.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 1,500 | $0.700 | $0.895 | 70.0% | 89.5% | $1,050 | $1,342 | $+292 | +27.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by Dec… | Yes | 4,656 | $0.468 | $0.280 | 46.8% | 28.0% | $2,179 | $1,304 | $-876 | -40.2% | 2027-01-01 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 1,200 | $0.430 | $0.915 | 43.0% | 91.5% | $516 | $1,098 | $+582 | +112.8% | 2026-07-31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,078 | $0.370 | $0.945 | 37.0% | 94.5% | $399 | $1,019 | $+620 | +155.4% | 2026-05-31 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 982 | $0.793 | $0.975 | 79.3% | 97.5% | $778 | $957 | $+179 | +23.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 1,000 | $0.830 | $0.940 | 83.0% | 94.0% | $830 | $940 | $+110 | +13.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 900 | $0.147 | $0.848 | 14.7% | 84.8% | $132 | $763 | $+630 | +475.7% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? | Yes | 915 | $0.383 | $0.700 | 38.3% | 70.0% | $351 | $641 | $+290 | +82.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? | No | 600 | $0.974 | $0.994 | 97.4% | 99.4% | $584 | $596 | $+12 | +2.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 647 | $0.650 | $0.895 | 65.0% | 89.5% | $420 | $579 | $+158 | +37.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 567 | $0.982 | $0.993 | 98.2% | 99.2% | $557 | $563 | $+6 | +1.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 20… | No | 596 | $0.932 | $0.935 | 93.2% | 93.5% | $556 | $557 | $+2 | +0.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensio… | No | 500 | $0.853 | $1.000 | 85.3% | 100.0% | $426 | $500 | $+73 | +17.2% | 2026-05-29 |
| Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | No | 500 | $0.934 | $0.994 | 93.4% | 99.4% | $467 | $497 | $+30 | +6.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 500 | $0.982 | $0.993 | 98.2% | 99.3% | $491 | $496 | $+6 | +1.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 531 | $0.872 | $0.923 | 87.2% | 92.3% | $463 | $490 | $+27 | +5.9% | 2026-07-31 |
| Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 20… | No | 524 | $0.926 | $0.935 | 92.6% | 93.5% | $485 | $490 | $+5 | +1.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by Decemb… | No | 417 | $0.880 | $0.915 | 88.0% | 91.5% | $367 | $381 | $+15 | +4.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end … | No | 518 | $0.466 | $0.730 | 46.6% | 73.0% | $241 | $378 | $+137 | +56.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the… | No | 506 | $0.663 | $0.735 | 66.3% | 73.5% | $335 | $372 | $+36 | +10.8% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? | No | 400 | $0.880 | $0.925 | 88.0% | 92.5% | $352 | $370 | $+18 | +5.1% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 310 | $0.839 | $0.991 | 83.9% | 99.1% | $260 | $307 | $+47 | +18.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | No | 300 | $0.724 | $0.934 | 72.4% | 93.4% | $217 | $280 | $+63 | +29.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July… | No | 400 | $0.300 | $0.380 | 30.0% | 38.0% | $120 | $152 | $+32 | +26.7% | 2026-07-31 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpil… | Yes | 3,017 | $0.318 | $0.050 | 31.8% | 5.0% | $961 | $151 | $-810 | -84.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece… | No | 1,031 | $0.130 | $0.135 | 13.0% | 13.5% | $134 | $139 | $+5 | +3.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? | No | 124 | $0.910 | $0.955 | 91.0% | 95.5% | $113 | $118 | $+6 | +4.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | Yes | 498 | $0.340 | $0.234 | 34.0% | 23.4% | $169 | $116 | $-53 | -31.2% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2… | No | 100 | $0.910 | $0.915 | 91.0% | 91.5% | $91 | $92 | $+0 | +0.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 88 | $0.948 | $0.991 | 94.8% | 99.1% | $84 | $87 | $+4 | +4.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 115 | $0.460 | $0.755 | 46.0% | 75.5% | $53 | $87 | $+34 | +64.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? | Yes | 287 | $0.356 | $0.280 | 35.6% | 28.0% | $102 | $80 | $-22 | -21.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2… | No | 85 | $0.900 | $0.905 | 90.0% | 90.5% | $77 | $77 | $+0 | +0.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? | No | 184 | $0.627 | $0.411 | 62.7% | 41.1% | $115 | $76 | $-40 | -34.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpil… | Yes | 200 | $0.540 | $0.315 | 54.0% | 31.5% | $108 | $63 | $-45 | -41.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 64 | $0.840 | $0.820 | 84.0% | 82.0% | $54 | $53 | $-1 | -2.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? | Yes | 206 | $0.156 | $0.155 | 15.6% | 15.5% | $32 | $32 | $-0 | -0.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the United States send warships through the S… | Yes | 87 | $0.770 | $0.310 | 77.0% | 31.0% | $67 | $27 | $-40 | -59.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? | Yes | 20 | $0.910 | $0.981 | 91.0% | 98.0% | $18 | $20 | $+1 | +7.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 20… | No | 20 | $0.910 | $0.915 | 91.0% | 91.5% | $18 | $18 | $+0 | +0.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end o… | Yes | 33 | $0.652 | $0.305 | 65.2% | 30.5% | $22 | $10 | $-12 | -53.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any … | No | 17 | $0.350 | $0.295 | 35.0% | 29.5% | $6 | $5 | $-1 | -15.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 5 | $0.560 | $0.555 | 56.0% | 55.5% | $3 | $3 | $-0 | -0.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of J… | Yes | 16 | $0.031 | $0.079 | 3.1% | 7.9% | $0 | $1 | $+1 | +154.8% | 2026-07-31 |
📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
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Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-14 23:01:23
Latest trade ts
2026-06-14 11:18
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
4 open| Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Last | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on… | No | 17 | 0.350 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 400 | 0.810 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the … | Yes | 211 | 0.652 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the … | No | 178 | 0.333 | - | $0.00 |
Recent trades
5 of 5 shown| When | Side | Market | Outcome | Shares | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 11:18 | BUY | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Horm… | No | 10 | 0.350 | $3.38 | 0xa68044… |
| 2026-06-14 10:45 | BUY | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Horm… | No | 7 | 0.350 | $2.57 | 0x6e55dc… |
| 2026-06-13 05:36 | BUY | Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 400 | 0.810 | $324.00 | 0xeda70d… |
| 2026-06-13 02:30 | BUY | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at… | Yes | 211 | 0.652 | $137.62 | 0x4a8895… |
| 2026-06-13 02:23 | BUY | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at… | No | 178 | 0.333 | $59.19 | 0x08cfaf… |