0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344
0X
TRACKEDT14 SOURCES
Sources: local:god_system_wallets|local:god_system_wallets_api|local:movers_wallets|local:unique_wallets
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$3.08M
6957W / 7874L · WR 46.9%
Open exposure (live)
$591.2k
217 open · unrealized +$104.6k · 💰 283 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$201.37M
3996 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$1.40M
−$301.4k
Realized
+$3.08M
Unrealized (local approx)
+$350.1k
Profit capture (brain)
0%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$228.0k
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
93
local DB
First → Last trade
2024-01-19
→ 2026-05-11
🟢 Live open positions
217 live · $591,175 current value · unrealized +$104.6k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 79,330 | $0.672 | $0.885 | 67.2% | 88.5% | $53,319 | $70,207 | $+16,887 | +31.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end… | Yes | 92,425 | $0.049 | $0.733 | 4.9% | 73.2% | $4,573 | $67,702 | $+63,129 | +1380.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 44,253 | $0.910 | $0.989 | 91.0% | 98.9% | $40,270 | $43,766 | $+3,496 | +8.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 51,034 | $0.110 | $0.702 | 11.0% | 70.2% | $5,624 | $35,800 | $+30,176 | +536.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 114,787 | $0.205 | $0.195 | 20.5% | 19.5% | $23,508 | $22,383 | $-1,125 | -4.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | 32,762 | $0.419 | $0.475 | 41.9% | 47.5% | $13,726 | $15,562 | $+1,836 | +13.4% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presiden… | Yes | 296,646 | $0.038 | $0.051 | 3.8% | 5.1% | $11,372 | $15,277 | $+3,906 | +34.3% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower be… | No | 15,394 | $0.393 | $0.948 | 39.3% | 94.8% | $6,045 | $14,586 | $+8,541 | +141.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Electio… | Yes | 95,822 | $0.182 | $0.150 | 18.2% | 15.0% | $17,403 | $14,421 | $-2,982 | -17.1% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Elec… | Yes | 91,219 | $0.096 | $0.158 | 9.6% | 15.8% | $8,784 | $14,367 | $+5,583 | +63.6% | 2028-11-07 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 17,370 | $0.690 | $0.765 | 69.0% | 76.5% | $11,990 | $13,288 | $+1,299 | +10.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 32,457 | $0.347 | $0.405 | 34.7% | 40.5% | $11,269 | $13,145 | $+1,876 | +16.7% | 2026-07-31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 124,033 | $0.369 | $0.105 | 36.9% | 10.5% | $45,790 | $13,023 | $-32,767 | -71.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 13,229 | $0.789 | $0.872 | 78.9% | 87.2% | $10,440 | $11,529 | $+1,089 | +10.4% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazil… | Yes | 22,208 | $0.370 | $0.515 | 37.0% | 51.5% | $8,217 | $11,437 | $+3,220 | +39.2% | 2026-10-04 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 75,000 | $0.160 | $0.115 | 16.0% | 11.5% | $12,000 | $8,625 | $-3,375 | -28.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 9,366 | $0.810 | $0.905 | 81.0% | 90.5% | $7,586 | $8,476 | $+890 | +11.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 8,866 | $0.369 | $0.900 | 36.9% | 90.0% | $3,273 | $7,979 | $+4,706 | +143.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 7,665 | $0.857 | $0.928 | 85.7% | 92.8% | $6,566 | $7,117 | $+551 | +8.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democra… | Yes | 61,493 | $0.035 | $0.101 | 3.5% | 10.1% | $2,144 | $6,180 | $+4,036 | +188.3% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 75,000 | $0.088 | $0.081 | 8.8% | 8.1% | $6,600 | $6,038 | $-563 | -8.5% | 2026-07-20 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presiden… | Yes | 24,999 | $0.007 | $0.234 | 0.7% | 23.4% | $185 | $5,837 | $+5,652 | +3048.2% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 12,176 | $0.665 | $0.450 | 66.5% | 45.0% | $8,103 | $5,479 | $-2,623 | -32.4% | 1970-01-01 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June … | Yes | 16,350 | $0.270 | $0.335 | 27.0% | 33.5% | $4,415 | $5,477 | $+1,063 | +24.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presid… | Yes | 270,646 | $0.015 | $0.019 | 1.5% | 1.9% | $4,120 | $5,278 | $+1,158 | +28.1% | 2028-11-07 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30… | No | 4,057 | $0.801 | $0.925 | 80.1% | 92.5% | $3,249 | $3,753 | $+504 | +15.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Stripe IPO before 2027? | No | 4,153 | $0.834 | $0.900 | 83.4% | 90.0% | $3,462 | $3,737 | $+275 | +7.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 150,000 | $0.025 | $0.025 | 2.5% | 2.5% | $3,750 | $3,675 | $-75 | -2.0% | 2026-07-20 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower bef… | No | 3,554 | $0.174 | $0.930 | 17.4% | 93.0% | $617 | $3,306 | $+2,689 | +435.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 3,384 | $0.837 | $0.895 | 83.7% | 89.5% | $2,833 | $3,028 | $+196 | +6.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | 3,110 | $0.845 | $0.955 | 84.5% | 95.5% | $2,628 | $2,968 | $+341 | +13.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presid… | Yes | 63,803 | $0.016 | $0.043 | 1.6% | 4.2% | $1,042 | $2,712 | $+1,670 | +160.2% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Ele… | Yes | 90,569 | $0.026 | $0.029 | 2.6% | 2.9% | $2,366 | $2,672 | $+306 | +12.9% | 2028-11-07 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 3,422 | $0.510 | $0.765 | 51.0% | 76.5% | $1,745 | $2,617 | $+872 | +50.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | No | 2,555 | $0.919 | $0.994 | 91.9% | 99.4% | $2,347 | $2,538 | $+191 | +8.1% | 1970-01-01 |
| Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30… | No | 2,578 | $0.850 | $0.973 | 85.0% | 97.2% | $2,191 | $2,507 | $+316 | +14.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1,000,000 | $0.003 | $0.003 | 0.3% | 0.2% | $3,000 | $2,500 | $-500 | -16.7% | 2026-07-20 |
| Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? | No | 2,555 | $0.810 | $0.958 | 81.0% | 95.8% | $2,070 | $2,448 | $+378 | +18.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor rac… | No | 2,763 | $0.896 | $0.885 | 89.6% | 88.5% | $2,475 | $2,445 | $-30 | -1.2% | 1970-01-01 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 20… | No | 2,555 | $0.741 | $0.950 | 74.1% | 95.0% | $1,893 | $2,427 | $+534 | +28.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? | No | 2,478 | $0.898 | $0.945 | 89.8% | 94.5% | $2,226 | $2,342 | $+116 | +5.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 3… | No | 2,555 | $0.830 | $0.905 | 83.0% | 90.5% | $2,121 | $2,312 | $+192 | +9.0% | 2026-01-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end … | Yes | 7,500 | $0.590 | $0.295 | 59.0% | 29.5% | $4,425 | $2,212 | $-2,212 | -50.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race … | Yes | 2,482 | $0.876 | $0.870 | 87.6% | 87.0% | $2,174 | $2,160 | $-15 | -0.7% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | 33,398 | $0.090 | $0.062 | 9.0% | 6.2% | $3,011 | $2,087 | $-923 | -30.7% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 2,091 | $0.898 | $0.991 | 89.8% | 99.1% | $1,878 | $2,071 | $+193 | +10.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Pres… | Yes | 34,420 | $0.052 | $0.059 | 5.2% | 5.9% | $1,793 | $2,048 | $+255 | +14.2% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 2,555 | $0.886 | $0.760 | 88.6% | 76.0% | $2,265 | $1,942 | $-323 | -14.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor r… | Yes | 2,028 | $0.912 | $0.925 | 91.2% | 92.5% | $1,850 | $1,876 | $+25 | +1.4% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presiden… | Yes | 70,074 | $0.006 | $0.026 | 0.6% | 2.6% | $455 | $1,857 | $+1,402 | +308.5% | 2028-11-07 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
283 markets settled · $0 unclaimed📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
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Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-15 09:26:33
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 07:36
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
6 open| Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Last | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 13229 | 0.789 | - | $0.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | No | 1 | 0.158 | - | $0.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 75000 | 0.160 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidentia… | Yes | 600 | 0.028 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | No | 5000 | 0.770 | - | $0.00 |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw… | No | 5000 | 0.700 | - | $0.00 |
Closed positions
most recent 50| Exit when | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Exit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 00:00 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 35589 | 7.226 | 0.819 | -$228.0k |
Recent trades
93 of 93 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | -$228.0k |