0x9cb98fc57fe8a3bdf75c3b48bd419e5d262f7b80
no username
TRACKEDVPST24 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$13.9k
407W / 150L · WR 73.1%
Open exposure (live)
$19.8k
45 open · unrealized +$288.00
Lifetime turnover
$1.45M
475 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$1.2k
−$382.73
Realized
+$13.9k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$287.41
Profit capture (brain)
40%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$392.26
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
77
local DB
First → Last trade
2025-11-03
→ 2025-12-20
🟢 Live open positions
45 live · $19,796 current value · unrealized +$288.00| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 3,600 | $0.927 | $0.940 | 92.7% | 94.0% | $3,336 | $3,382 | $+46 | +1.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 3,500 | $0.933 | $0.939 | 93.3% | 93.8% | $3,267 | $3,285 | $+17 | +0.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | No | 1,500 | $0.990 | $0.996 | 99.0% | 99.6% | $1,485 | $1,494 | $+9 | +0.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? | No | 1,500 | $0.880 | $0.945 | 88.0% | 94.5% | $1,320 | $1,417 | $+97 | +7.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 1,000 | $0.939 | $0.973 | 93.9% | 97.2% | $939 | $972 | $+34 | +3.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Carole Delga be on the ballot for the 2027 Fr… | No | 883 | $0.769 | $0.900 | 76.9% | 90.0% | $679 | $794 | $+116 | +17.1% | 2027-04-17 |
| UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in… | No | 745 | $0.870 | $0.962 | 87.0% | 96.2% | $648 | $717 | $+68 | +10.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | No | 845 | $0.819 | $0.800 | 81.9% | 80.0% | $691 | $676 | $-16 | -2.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 202… | No | 750 | $0.817 | $0.835 | 81.7% | 83.5% | $613 | $626 | $+14 | +2.2% | 2027-04-17 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presi… | Yes | 1,700 | $0.342 | $0.275 | 34.2% | 27.5% | $582 | $468 | $-114 | -19.7% | 2026-10-04 |
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 Fre… | Yes | 905 | $0.308 | $0.505 | 30.8% | 50.5% | $279 | $457 | $+178 | +64.1% | 2026-10-11 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… | Yes | 750 | $0.607 | $0.605 | 60.7% | 60.5% | $455 | $454 | $-1 | -0.3% | 2026-09-30 |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presid… | No | 500 | $0.880 | $0.875 | 88.0% | 87.5% | $440 | $438 | $-2 | -0.6% | 2027-04-30 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 500 | $0.800 | $0.875 | 80.0% | 87.5% | $400 | $438 | $+38 | +9.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August… | No | 449 | $0.895 | $0.945 | 89.5% | 94.5% | $402 | $424 | $+23 | +5.6% | 2026-08-31 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister… | No | 500 | $0.600 | $0.715 | 60.0% | 71.5% | $300 | $357 | $+57 | +19.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister … | No | 350 | $0.896 | $0.960 | 89.6% | 96.0% | $313 | $336 | $+22 | +7.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 375 | $0.670 | $0.895 | 67.0% | 89.5% | $251 | $336 | $+84 | +33.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 550 | $0.591 | $0.605 | 59.1% | 60.5% | $325 | $333 | $+8 | +2.4% | 2027-01-01 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 550 | $0.679 | $0.575 | 67.9% | 57.5% | $373 | $316 | $-57 | -15.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state? | No | 261 | $0.956 | $0.966 | 95.6% | 96.6% | $249 | $252 | $+3 | +1.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidentia… | No | 250 | $0.903 | $0.965 | 90.3% | 96.5% | $226 | $241 | $+15 | +6.8% | 2027-04-30 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 250 | $0.730 | $0.905 | 73.0% | 90.5% | $182 | $226 | $+44 | +24.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presiden… | Yes | 1,000 | $0.211 | $0.205 | 21.1% | 20.5% | $212 | $205 | $-7 | -3.1% | 2027-04-30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 500 | $0.252 | $0.335 | 25.2% | 33.5% | $126 | $168 | $+41 | +32.9% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee fo… | Yes | 985 | $0.145 | $0.150 | 14.5% | 15.0% | $143 | $148 | $+5 | +3.3% | 2026-10-11 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 350 | $0.360 | $0.365 | 36.0% | 36.5% | $126 | $128 | $+2 | +1.4% | 2026-11-03 |
| Will Jérôme Guedj be on the ballot for the 2027 Fr… | No | 137 | $0.671 | $0.905 | 67.1% | 90.5% | $92 | $124 | $+32 | +34.8% | 2027-04-17 |
| Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 202… | No | 120 | $0.543 | $0.670 | 54.3% | 67.0% | $65 | $80 | $+15 | +23.3% | 2027-04-17 |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 15? | No | 61 | $0.995 | $0.999 | 99.5% | 99.9% | $60 | $61 | $+0 | +0.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of… | Yes | 263 | $0.402 | $0.210 | 40.2% | 21.0% | $106 | $55 | $-50 | -47.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 … | No | 59 | $0.590 | $0.910 | 59.0% | 91.0% | $35 | $54 | $+19 | +54.2% | 2027-04-17 |
| Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for… | Yes | 835 | $0.059 | $0.061 | 5.9% | 6.2% | $49 | $51 | $+2 | +4.9% | 2026-10-11 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French president… | Yes | 188 | $0.267 | $0.265 | 26.7% | 26.5% | $50 | $50 | $-0 | -0.6% | 2027-04-30 |
| Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for … | No | 55 | $0.890 | $0.855 | 89.0% | 85.5% | $49 | $47 | $-2 | -3.9% | 2027-04-23 |
| Will Élisabeth Borne be on the ballot for the 2027… | No | 48 | $0.855 | $0.973 | 85.5% | 97.3% | $41 | $47 | $+6 | +13.9% | 2027-04-17 |
| Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee f… | Yes | 2,310 | $0.036 | $0.019 | 3.6% | 1.9% | $83 | $45 | $-38 | -45.9% | 2026-10-11 |
| Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nomine… | Yes | 2,920 | $0.040 | $0.010 | 4.0% | 1.0% | $117 | $29 | $-88 | -75.0% | 2026-10-11 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential El… | Yes | 500 | $0.033 | $0.051 | 3.3% | 5.1% | $16 | $25 | $+9 | +54.4% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | Yes | 375 | $0.750 | $0.048 | 75.0% | 4.8% | $281 | $18 | $-263 | -93.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for t… | Yes | 2,276 | $0.040 | $0.006 | 4.0% | 0.7% | $91 | $15 | $-76 | -83.7% | 2026-10-11 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 5 | $0.244 | $0.854 | 24.4% | 85.4% | $1 | $4 | $+3 | +249.8% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for th… | No | 5 | $0.500 | $0.540 | 50.0% | 54.0% | $3 | $3 | $+0 | +8.0% | 2027-04-17 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 0 | $0.791 | $0.875 | 79.1% | 87.5% | $0 | $0 | $+0 | +10.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidentia… | Yes | 350 | $0.013 | $0.001 | 1.3% | 0.1% | $5 | $0 | $-4 | -96.2% | 2026-06-07 |
📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-15 03:45:42
Latest trade ts
2026-06-14 15:45
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
2 open| Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Last | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for th… | No | 145 | 0.830 | - | $0.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 5 | 80.120 | - | $0.00 |
Closed positions
most recent 50| Exit when | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Exit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 11:29 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 625 | 0.342 | 0.220 | -$76.25 |
| 2026-06-13 07:27 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 972 | 0.165 | 0.184 | +$18.47 |
| 2026-06-13 06:45 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 278 | 0.989 | 0.177 | -$225.76 |
| 2026-06-12 18:17 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 20… | Yes | 375 | 0.383 | 0.410 | +$10.00 |
| 2026-06-12 16:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 20… | Yes | 73 | 1.671 | 0.440 | -$90.25 |
Recent trades
77 of 77 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | -$363.79 |
Coordinated-buy involvement
events that included this walletAlerts for this wallet
| When | Type | Severity |
|---|---|---|
| - | whale_tracked_wallet | info |