0x8a7b576b7a53ef54876f9eca18bcd84f12d8782f
no username
TRACKEDVPST24 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
$0.00
0W / 0L · WR -
Open exposure (live)
$26.0k
109 open · unrealized +$1.2k
Lifetime turnover
$0.00
0 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$0.00
−$0.00
Realized
$0.00
Unrealized (local approx)
$0.00
Profit capture (brain)
33%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$1.12
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
76
local DB
First → Last trade
-
→ -
🟢 Live open positions
109 live · $25,988 current value · unrealized +$1.2k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 5,000 | $0.987 | $0.994 | 98.7% | 99.4% | $4,935 | $4,967 | $+33 | +0.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 2,500 | $0.983 | $0.990 | 98.3% | 99.0% | $2,458 | $2,474 | $+15 | +0.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | No | 1,990 | $0.976 | $0.996 | 97.6% | 99.6% | $1,942 | $1,981 | $+39 | +2.0% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower be… | No | 1,741 | $0.875 | $0.955 | 87.5% | 95.5% | $1,524 | $1,663 | $+138 | +9.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,025 | $0.985 | $0.988 | 98.5% | 98.8% | $1,010 | $1,013 | $+3 | +0.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower bef… | No | 1,010 | $0.594 | $0.954 | 59.4% | 95.3% | $600 | $963 | $+363 | +60.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower bef… | No | 997 | $0.909 | $0.955 | 90.9% | 95.5% | $906 | $952 | $+46 | +5.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 1,000 | $0.900 | $0.900 | 90.0% | 90.0% | $900 | $900 | $+0 | +0.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June… | No | 800 | $0.994 | $0.998 | 99.4% | 99.8% | $795 | $798 | $+3 | +0.4% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower be… | No | 818 | $0.925 | $0.951 | 92.5% | 95.0% | $757 | $778 | $+21 | +2.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027? | No | 890 | $0.724 | $0.855 | 72.4% | 85.5% | $644 | $761 | $+117 | +18.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| JD Vance out as VP by June 30? | No | 665 | $0.991 | $0.993 | 99.1% | 99.3% | $659 | $661 | $+1 | +0.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower be… | No | 681 | $0.916 | $0.955 | 91.6% | 95.5% | $624 | $650 | $+26 | +4.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 663 | $0.755 | $0.815 | 75.5% | 81.5% | $501 | $540 | $+40 | +7.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? | No | 521 | $0.990 | $0.990 | 99.0% | 99.0% | $516 | $516 | $-0 | -0.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower befor… | No | 492 | $0.921 | $0.957 | 92.1% | 95.7% | $453 | $471 | $+17 | +3.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower be… | No | 441 | $0.921 | $0.950 | 92.1% | 95.0% | $406 | $419 | $+13 | +3.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 202… | No | 389 | $0.968 | $0.988 | 96.8% | 98.8% | $377 | $385 | $+8 | +2.0% | 2025-12-31 |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | 382 | $0.993 | $0.996 | 99.3% | 99.6% | $379 | $380 | $+1 | +0.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | 329 | $0.978 | $0.994 | 97.8% | 99.4% | $322 | $327 | $+5 | +1.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? | No | 328 | $0.980 | $0.994 | 98.0% | 99.4% | $322 | $326 | $+5 | +1.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower bef… | No | 338 | $0.910 | $0.955 | 91.0% | 95.5% | $307 | $322 | $+15 | +4.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Record crypto liquidation in 2026? | No | 300 | $0.757 | $0.925 | 75.7% | 92.5% | $227 | $278 | $+51 | +22.2% | 2027-01-01 |
| Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? | No | 243 | $0.956 | $0.994 | 95.6% | 99.4% | $232 | $241 | $+9 | +3.9% | 2026-12-09 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | No | 242 | $0.980 | $0.974 | 98.0% | 97.4% | $237 | $235 | $-1 | -0.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Obama arrested before 2027? | No | 231 | $0.847 | $0.930 | 84.7% | 93.0% | $196 | $215 | $+19 | +9.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026… | No | 200 | $0.977 | $0.993 | 97.7% | 99.2% | $195 | $199 | $+3 | +1.6% | 2025-12-31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 200 | $0.988 | $0.992 | 98.8% | 99.2% | $198 | $198 | $+1 | +0.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30… | No | 200 | $0.984 | $0.991 | 98.4% | 99.1% | $197 | $198 | $+1 | +0.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Major CEX insolvent in 2026? | No | 200 | $0.900 | $0.930 | 90.0% | 93.0% | $180 | $186 | $+6 | +3.3% | 2027-01-01 |
| Fed abolished before 2027? | No | 195 | $0.916 | $0.954 | 91.6% | 95.3% | $178 | $186 | $+7 | +4.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and wil… | Yes | 145 | $0.748 | $0.875 | 74.8% | 87.5% | $109 | $127 | $+18 | +17.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | No | 129 | $0.905 | $0.935 | 90.5% | 93.5% | $117 | $121 | $+4 | +3.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% bef… | No | 196 | $0.146 | $0.605 | 14.6% | 60.5% | $29 | $119 | $+90 | +314.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three dec… | No | 108 | $0.981 | $0.997 | 98.1% | 99.7% | $106 | $108 | $+2 | +1.6% | 2026-09-16 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% bef… | No | 107 | $0.902 | $0.962 | 90.2% | 96.2% | $97 | $103 | $+6 | +6.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% bef… | No | 111 | $0.782 | $0.850 | 78.2% | 85.0% | $87 | $94 | $+8 | +8.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | $0.725 | $0.920 | 72.5% | 92.0% | $72 | $92 | $+20 | +27.0% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for th… | No | 85 | $0.876 | $0.954 | 87.6% | 95.3% | $75 | $81 | $+7 | +8.8% | 2026-07-15 |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2… | No | 71 | $0.880 | $0.933 | 88.0% | 93.3% | $62 | $66 | $+4 | +6.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three … | No | 66 | $0.860 | $0.954 | 86.0% | 95.4% | $57 | $63 | $+6 | +11.0% | 2026-07-29 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds r… | No | 63 | $0.905 | $0.991 | 90.5% | 99.1% | $57 | $62 | $+5 | +9.5% | 2026-12-09 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower bef… | No | 56 | $0.920 | $0.955 | 92.0% | 95.5% | $52 | $53 | $+2 | +3.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower bef… | No | 55 | $0.938 | $0.960 | 93.8% | 96.0% | $52 | $53 | $+1 | +2.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher b… | No | 53 | $0.937 | $0.968 | 93.7% | 96.8% | $50 | $51 | $+2 | +3.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds r… | Yes | 121 | $0.287 | $0.330 | 28.7% | 33.0% | $35 | $40 | $+5 | +15.0% | 2026-12-09 |
| Anthropic CEO arrested? | No | 34 | $0.990 | $0.992 | 99.0% | 99.2% | $34 | $34 | $+0 | +0.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% bef… | No | 35 | $0.886 | $0.920 | 88.6% | 92.0% | $31 | $32 | $+1 | +3.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | No | 48 | $0.765 | $0.665 | 76.5% | 66.5% | $37 | $32 | $-5 | -13.0% | 2026-12-09 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 30 | $0.968 | $0.993 | 96.8% | 99.2% | $29 | $30 | $+1 | +2.5% | 2026-06-30 |
📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
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Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-14 23:01:28
Latest trade ts
2026-06-14 21:53
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
17 openClosed positions
most recent 50| Exit when | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Exit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 21:40 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at t… | Yes | 300 | 0.002 | 0.002 | -$0.00 |
| 2026-06-14 04:58 | US bank failure by June 30? | No | 67 | 0.757 | 0.740 | -$1.12 |
| 2026-06-14 04:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by… | No | 200 | 0.150 | 0.170 | +$4.00 |
Recent trades
76 of 76 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | +$2.88 |
Coordinated-buy involvement
events that included this wallet| When | Market | Wallets | Notional | Diversity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 17:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by… | 3 | $34.4k | 0.93 |
| 2026-06-01 14:32 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidenti… | 3 | $129.20 | 0.77 |
| 2026-06-01 13:18 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext… | 3 | $3.4k | 0.87 |
| 2026-06-01 13:11 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext… | 4 | $10.3k | 0.75 |