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0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee

Larynqz
TRACKEDVPST28 SOURCES
Sources: local:god_system_copyable|local:god_system_wallets|local:unique_wallets|vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:filter_3.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
$0.00
0W / 0L · WR -
Open exposure (live)
$118.7k
28 open · unrealized +$22.9k · 💰 4 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$0.00
0 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$0.00
−$0.00
Realized
$0.00
Unrealized (local approx)
$0.00
Profit capture (brain)
-
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
42
local DB
First → Last trade
-
→ -

🟢 Live open positions

28 live · $118,722 current value · unrealized +$22.9k
MarketSideSharesAvg priceCur priceEntry oddsCur oddsCostValuePnLPnL %Expires
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes25,223$0.331$0.89533.1%89.5%$8,361$22,574$+14,213+170.0%2026-05-31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dece…Yes16,000$0.747$0.86574.7%86.5%$11,956$13,840$+1,884+15.8%2026-12-31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No10,500$0.814$0.89581.4%89.5%$8,550$9,397$+848+9.9%2026-12-31
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31…No11,119$0.773$0.84577.3%84.5%$8,592$9,396$+804+9.4%2026-12-31
Iran leadership change by December 31?No9,047$0.697$0.82569.7%82.5%$6,307$7,464$+1,157+18.3%2026-12-31
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Ma…No7,208$0.946$0.96994.6%96.9%$6,818$6,985$+167+2.4%2026-06-18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes7,644$0.262$0.77426.2%77.5%$2,004$5,920$+3,916+195.4%2026-06-15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ju…No4,907$0.913$0.98791.3%98.7%$4,479$4,841$+362+8.1%2026-06-30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Decemb…No5,387$0.579$0.78557.9%78.5%$3,119$4,229$+1,110+35.6%2026-12-31
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 3…No4,500$0.830$0.93583.0%93.5%$3,735$4,208$+472+12.7%2026-07-01
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormu…No5,994$0.855$0.69085.5%69.0%$5,125$4,135$-990-19.3%2026-06-30
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-e…No4,000$0.972$0.98997.2%98.9%$3,888$3,956$+68+1.7%1970-01-01
Iran coup attempt by June 30?No4,000$0.946$0.98494.6%98.4%$3,784$3,936$+152+4.0%2026-06-30
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes3,973$0.625$0.74062.5%74.0%$2,483$2,940$+456+18.4%2026-12-31
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No2,719$0.772$0.97677.2%97.5%$2,100$2,652$+552+26.3%2026-06-16
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No2,647$0.933$0.92593.3%92.5%$2,469$2,448$-21-0.9%2026-06-30
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colomb…Yes2,592$0.860$0.88586.0%88.5%$2,229$2,294$+65+2.9%2026-06-21
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No2,500$0.860$0.81586.0%81.5%$2,150$2,037$-113-5.2%2026-07-31
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No1,895$0.890$0.88989.0%88.9%$1,687$1,686$-1-0.1%2026-07-20
Iran leadership change by June 30?No1,644$0.924$0.98592.4%98.5%$1,519$1,619$+99+6.5%2026-06-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Swi…Yes1,500$0.260$0.82726.0%82.7%$390$1,240$+850+217.9%2026-06-30
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before…No859$0.830$0.83583.0%83.5%$713$717$+5+0.6%2026-12-31
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pak…Yes3,469$0.939$0.03493.9%3.4%$3,257$118$-3,139-96.4%2026-06-30
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?No114$0.360$0.57536.0%57.5%$41$66$+25+59.7%2027-01-01
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diploma…No17$0.892$0.87589.2%87.5%$15$15$-0-1.9%2026-06-30
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?No8$0.959$0.96595.9%96.5%$8$8$+0+0.6%2026-06-30
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?Yes500$0.050$0.0025.0%0.1%$25$1$-24-97.0%2026-06-30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oma…Yes30$0.031$0.0053.1%0.5%$1$0$-1-82.3%2026-06-30

💰 Resolved · pending claim

4 markets settled · $0 unclaimed
MarketSideSharesCostValuePnLResolved
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensio…Yes1,075$398$0$-3982026-05-30
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Yes3,952$1,533$0$-1,5331970-01-01
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No9,230$6,612$0$-6,6122026-06-30
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?No7,500$7,011$0$-7,0112026-06-08

📡 Live activity feed

100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any wallet
WhenTypeSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-14 22:23TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No2,500$0.983$2.5k0x50fc71…
2026-06-14 22:03TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes744$0.738$548.960x071687…
2026-06-14 20:41TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No1,500$0.920$1.4k0x363747…
2026-06-14 20:27TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes1,200$0.173$207.600x1014bd…
2026-06-14 19:56TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No1,441$0.860$1.2k0xc4fa79…
2026-06-14 19:23TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No165$0.601$99.110x32f351…
2026-06-14 19:22TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No20$0.601$11.810x101ce6…
2026-06-14 19:18TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by December 31?No14$0.360$5.040xaca06d…
2026-06-14 19:17TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by December 31?No100$0.360$36.000x506f13…
2026-06-14 16:40TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No1,478$0.779$1.2k0x1f9a05…
2026-06-14 16:40TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No22$0.779$16.980x535f7a…
2026-06-14 16:16TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No121$0.801$96.840x21f6af…
2026-06-14 16:15TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No468$0.801$375.270x19b02a…
2026-06-14 15:58TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No14$0.801$11.220x974191…
2026-06-14 15:51TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No431$0.783$337.450x4d3273…
2026-06-14 12:32TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes1,542$0.141$217.460xc46e5b…
2026-06-14 12:32TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes50$0.141$7.050xcfaa95…
2026-06-14 12:32TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes25$0.141$3.520x94376c…
2026-06-14 12:31TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes883$0.141$124.460x543b77…
2026-06-14 10:49TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No130$0.860$111.800xa55f52…
2026-06-14 03:33TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No370$0.860$318.200x9ce09b…
2026-06-14 02:01TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No1,500$0.891$1.3k0x393956…
2026-06-14 00:45MAKER_REBATE--2$0.000$2.060xe32b63…
2026-06-14 00:17YIELD--0$0.000$0.030xc6c5e6…
2026-06-13 23:52TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No559$0.860$480.590x51389f…
2026-06-13 18:44TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes748$0.271$202.740xb1201e…
2026-06-13 18:43TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes4$0.271$1.170xed12a4…
2026-06-13 18:43TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes70$0.271$18.890x4be7b1…
2026-06-13 18:38TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes378$0.271$102.390x67798d…
2026-06-13 18:37TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes1,721$0.285$490.560x67b5a3…
2026-06-13 18:37TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes277$0.285$78.920x5040bf…
2026-06-13 18:37TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes2$0.285$0.510x677fe5…
2026-06-13 10:25TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 No3,571$0.941$3.4k0xa3f620…
2026-06-13 09:41TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 No137$0.941$128.920x28d773…
2026-06-13 06:02REDEEM-Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June-9,000$0.000$9.0k0xece006…
2026-06-13 00:17YIELD--0$0.000$0.030x49d27c…
2026-06-13 00:15REWARD--0$0.000$0.170x5fca1c…
2026-06-13 00:00REWARD--6$0.000$5.590x6dc64e…
2026-06-12 22:44TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes6,535$0.174$1.1k0x22f3a9…
2026-06-12 22:40TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes160$0.174$27.840x07d649…
2026-06-12 22:39TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes2,000$0.174$348.000x7d9493…
2026-06-12 22:33TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes299$0.174$52.000x4d95ff…
2026-06-12 22:28TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes1,685$0.174$293.190x6b22c2…
2026-06-12 22:13TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in SYes124$0.260$32.160x1f0467…
2026-06-12 22:11TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in SYes355$0.260$92.260x1ba37b…
2026-06-12 22:01TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in SYes150$0.260$39.000xf9a3f6…
2026-06-12 22:00TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in SYes34$0.260$8.880xea124f…
2026-06-12 21:35TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in SYes837$0.260$217.700xe3a2f4…
2026-06-12 12:16TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes378$0.164$62.020x917c2f…
2026-06-12 12:16TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes7,000$0.164$1.1k0x33ae28…
2026-06-12 12:15TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes3,301$0.164$541.310x73d84f…
2026-06-12 12:13TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes142$0.172$24.490xcbf999…
2026-06-12 00:11YIELD--0$0.000$0.010x284aca…
2026-06-11 17:32TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No18$0.886$15.540xc92f07…
2026-06-11 17:32TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No378$0.886$334.860xfdcde9…
2026-06-11 14:37TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No11$0.912$10.360x6e1d17…
2026-06-11 14:36TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No57$0.912$51.820xbc987d…
2026-06-11 14:35TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No114$0.912$103.640x79da87…
2026-06-11 14:32TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No1,381$0.912$1.3k0xb84fe0…
2026-06-11 14:32TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No603$0.912$550.120xb84fe0…
2026-06-11 14:32TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No62$0.912$56.900xa0ef64…
2026-06-11 14:30TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No25$0.912$22.800xf1ed3a…
2026-06-11 14:30TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No227$0.912$207.270xc1aad9…
2026-06-11 14:30TRADESELLUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December No2,500$0.810$2.0k0x4df0ea…
2026-06-11 14:05TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No948$0.915$867.670x874398…
2026-06-11 13:49TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No96$0.915$87.880x7e4750…
2026-06-11 13:47TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No1,326$0.915$1.2k0xdb6c53…
2026-06-11 13:08TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No129$0.915$118.410x5be359…
2026-06-11 12:56TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by No2,427$0.911$2.2k0xc00156…
2026-06-11 11:51TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?No4,000$0.946$3.8k0x1ba708…
2026-06-11 11:17TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidYes89$0.969$86.640xc591c1…
2026-06-11 11:08TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidYes310$0.969$300.360xfb14ff…
2026-06-11 11:07TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidYes1,601$0.969$1.6k0x842922…
2026-06-11 10:04TRADESELLWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes482$0.999$481.690x87fa4d…
2026-06-11 09:08TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes1,500$0.150$225.000xde8fb0…
2026-06-11 07:36TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes5,000$0.040$200.000x4718b6…
2026-06-11 06:14REDEEM-Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?-2,600$0.000$2.6k0x3b108c…
2026-06-11 00:45MAKER_REBATE--2$0.000$2.300x2afdea…
2026-06-10 21:58TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 10?No1,600$0.786$1.3k0xcd7ddf…
2026-06-10 21:56TRADEBUYWill Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes5$0.922$4.960x8dbe93…

Performance breakdown

-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL

Performance calendar

click a day to see trades · navigate months

-

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat

Cumulative realized PnL

per closed-position exit, in chronological order

Polling state

Last polled
2026-06-14 23:00:44
Latest trade ts
2026-06-14 22:23
Backfill
✓ done

Calibration - WR by probability bucket

gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.9

Open positions

7 open
MarketOutcomeSharesEntryLastUnrealized
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 202…No15000.920-$0.00
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?No1140.360-$0.00
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?No27190.772-$0.00
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No15000.891-$0.00
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 202…No25000.860-$0.00
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 20…No37080.941-$0.00
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be i…Yes15000.260-$0.00

Recent trades

42 of 42 shown
WhenSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-14 22:23SELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian con…No25000.983$2.5k0x50fc71…
2026-06-14 22:03BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes7440.738$548.960x071687…
2026-06-14 20:41BUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30…No15000.920$1.4k0x363747…
2026-06-14 20:27BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes12000.173$207.600x1014bd…
2026-06-14 19:56BUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31…No14410.860$1.2k0xc4fa79…
2026-06-14 19:23BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No1650.601$99.110x32f351…
2026-06-14 19:22BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No200.601$11.810x101ce6…
2026-06-14 19:18BUYWill Iran close its airspace by December…No140.360$5.040xaca06d…
2026-06-14 19:17BUYWill Iran close its airspace by December…No1000.360$36.000x506f13…
2026-06-14 16:40BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No14780.779$1.2k0x1f9a05…
2026-06-14 16:40BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No220.779$16.980x535f7a…
2026-06-14 16:16BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No1210.801$96.840x21f6af…
2026-06-14 16:15BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No4680.801$375.270x19b02a…
2026-06-14 15:58BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No140.801$11.220x974191…
2026-06-14 15:51BUYWill Iran close its airspace by June 15?No4310.783$337.450x4d3273…
2026-06-14 12:32BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes15420.141$217.460xc46e5b…
2026-06-14 12:32BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes500.141$7.050xcfaa95…
2026-06-14 12:32BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes250.141$3.520x94376c…
2026-06-14 12:31BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes8830.141$124.460x543b77…
2026-06-14 10:49BUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31…No1300.860$111.800xa55f52…
2026-06-14 03:33BUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31…No3700.860$318.200x9ce09b…
2026-06-14 02:01BUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cu…No15000.891$1.3k0x393956…
2026-06-13 23:52BUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31…No5590.860$480.590x51389f…
2026-06-13 18:44BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes7480.271$202.740xb1201e…
2026-06-13 18:43BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes40.271$1.170xed12a4…
2026-06-13 18:43BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes700.271$18.890x4be7b1…
2026-06-13 18:38BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes3780.271$102.390x67798d…
2026-06-13 18:37BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes17210.285$490.560x67b5a3…
2026-06-13 18:37BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes2770.285$78.920x5040bf…
2026-06-13 18:37BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes20.285$0.510x677fe5…
2026-06-13 10:25BUYWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in t…No35710.941$3.4k0xa3f620…
2026-06-13 09:41BUYWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in t…No1370.941$128.920x28d773…
2026-06-12 22:44SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes65350.174$1.1k0x22f3a9…
2026-06-12 22:40SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes1600.174$27.840x07d649…
2026-06-12 22:39SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes20000.174$348.000x7d9493…
2026-06-12 22:33SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes2990.174$52.000x4d95ff…
2026-06-12 22:28SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…Yes16850.174$293.190x6b22c2…
2026-06-12 22:13BUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting…Yes1240.260$32.160x1f0467…
2026-06-12 22:11BUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting…Yes3550.260$92.260x1ba37b…
2026-06-12 22:01BUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting…Yes1500.260$39.000xf9a3f6…
2026-06-12 22:00BUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting…Yes340.260$8.880xea124f…
2026-06-12 21:35BUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting…Yes8370.260$217.700xe3a2f4…

Coordinated-buy involvement

events that included this wallet
WhenMarketWalletsNotionalDiversity
2026-06-05 16:25US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext…3$5.8k0.94
2026-06-05 09:40US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20…3$3.7k0.75
2026-06-03 21:33MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…16$1.32M0.75
2026-06-03 17:22Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral …3$11.2k0.93
2026-06-02 22:50MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$222.3k0.84
2026-06-02 22:46MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…5$218.1k0.61
2026-06-02 22:42MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$150.6k0.75
2026-06-02 22:41MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…5$127.1k0.81
2026-06-02 22:41MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$161.2k0.73
2026-06-02 16:16MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…12$385.2k0.72
2026-06-02 13:11MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$195.6k0.84
2026-06-02 13:10MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$189.0k0.80
2026-06-02 13:10MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$191.5k0.80
2026-06-02 13:08MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$126.1k0.80
2026-06-02 13:06MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$214.2k0.79
2026-06-02 12:26MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…6$595.5k0.79
2026-06-02 10:52MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…4$226.9k0.83
2026-06-02 10:48MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…15$658.7k0.74
2026-06-02 10:46MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…8$334.1k0.79
2026-06-02 07:45MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20…3$322.8k0.92