0x853c37a959a5791b849e3f3225c7f5963746bd03
no username
TRACKEDVPST24 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$150.8k
253W / 175L · WR 59.1%
Open exposure (live)
$4.2k
17 open · unrealized -$6.2k · 💰 12 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$131.04M
379 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$27.3k
−$6.1k
Realized
+$150.8k
Unrealized (local approx)
-$6.2k
Profit capture (brain)
29%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$8.2k
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
734
local DB
First → Last trade
2025-12-12
→ 2026-05-26
🟢 Live open positions
17 live · $4,193 current value · unrealized -$6.2k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran … | Yes | 1,800 | $0.762 | $0.992 | 76.2% | 99.2% | $1,371 | $1,786 | $+414 | +30.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | No | 3,658 | $0.342 | $0.345 | 34.2% | 34.5% | $1,251 | $1,262 | $+11 | +0.9% | 2026-06-22 |
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all fore… | Yes | 1,963 | $0.486 | $0.285 | 48.6% | 28.5% | $955 | $559 | $-396 | -41.4% | 2026-07-01 |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomat… | Yes | 315 | $0.740 | $0.995 | 74.0% | 99.5% | $233 | $313 | $+80 | +34.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Gov… | Yes | 2,682 | $0.097 | $0.049 | 9.7% | 4.9% | $259 | $130 | $-129 | -49.8% | 2026-06-09 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily tran… | Yes | 115 | $0.329 | $0.425 | 32.9% | 42.5% | $38 | $49 | $+11 | +29.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by… | Yes | 60 | $0.773 | $0.425 | 77.3% | 42.5% | $46 | $26 | $-21 | -45.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? | Yes | 48 | $0.262 | $0.345 | 26.2% | 34.5% | $13 | $17 | $+4 | +31.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? | No | 43 | $0.191 | $0.307 | 19.1% | 30.7% | $8 | $13 | $+5 | +60.7% | 2027-01-01 |
| SBF released from custody in 2026? | Yes | 227 | $0.044 | $0.046 | 4.4% | 4.7% | $10 | $11 | $+1 | +5.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Irani… | No | 16,323 | $0.366 | $0.001 | 36.6% | 0.1% | $5,976 | $8 | $-5,968 | -99.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any … | Yes | 100 | $0.230 | $0.075 | 23.0% | 7.5% | $23 | $8 | $-16 | -67.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom … | Yes | 258 | $0.421 | $0.015 | 42.1% | 1.5% | $109 | $4 | $-105 | -96.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 10 | $0.550 | $0.345 | 55.0% | 34.5% | $6 | $3 | $-2 | -37.3% | 2026-06-26 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 33 | $0.150 | $0.095 | 15.0% | 9.5% | $5 | $3 | $-2 | -36.7% | 2026-06-22 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? | Yes | 701 | $0.122 | $0.003 | 12.2% | 0.2% | $86 | $2 | $-84 | -98.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2… | Yes | 88 | $0.421 | $0.012 | 42.1% | 1.2% | $37 | $1 | $-36 | -97.2% | 2026-06-30 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
12 markets settled · $0 unclaimed| Market | Side | Shares | Cost | Value | PnL | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 12 | $2 | $0 | $-2 | 2026-05-15 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 66 | $6 | $0 | $-6 | 2026-06-15 |
| Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? | No | 594 | $41 | $0 | $-41 | 2026-12-31 |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 202… | Yes | 1,518 | $44 | $0 | $-44 | 2026-12-31 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? | Yes | 625 | $75 | $0 | $-75 | 2026-06-08 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 3,077 | $246 | $0 | $-246 | 2026-06-15 |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 4,293 | $393 | $0 | $-393 | 2026-04-30 |
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by Jun… | No | 6,296 | $714 | $0 | $-714 | 2026-07-01 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extensio… | Yes | 7,674 | $1,864 | $0 | $-1,864 | 2026-05-29 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 9,541 | $2,146 | $0 | $-2,146 | 2026-06-17 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by… | Yes | 10,647 | $2,182 | $0 | $-2,182 | 2026-05-31 |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | No | 6,994 | $2,384 | $0 | $-2,384 | 2026-07-31 |
📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
Sun
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Thu
Fri
Sat
Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-21 12:32:14
Latest trade ts
2026-06-21 05:50
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
37 openClosed positions
most recent 50Recent trades
100 of 734 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | 5 | -$611.60 |
| Other | 33 | -$5.4k |
Coordinated-buy involvement
events that included this wallet| When | Market | Wallets | Notional | Diversity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 12:08 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 6 | $17.6k | 0.68 |
| 2026-06-01 12:02 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 8 | $19.1k | 0.84 |
| 2026-06-01 12:02 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 8 | $18.7k | 0.84 |
| 2026-06-01 11:59 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 7 | $14.1k | 0.82 |
| 2026-05-29 14:56 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $11.8k | 0.90 |
| 2026-05-29 14:51 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $28.7k | 0.76 |
| 2026-05-28 14:13 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext… | 3 | $3.4k | 0.80 |
| 2026-05-28 14:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $7.6k | 0.53 |
| 2026-05-28 14:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $7.6k | 0.53 |