Big K Protocol
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BINANCE FRONT RUN. Trigger: BTC moves >=0.1% on 5-min Binance kline. Bet the leading direction on the current BTC 5-min Polymarket market. CLOB midpoint entry, flat $10 stake. No martingale ladder — each signal is one independent bet.
Same K=3 streak detector, plus two real-data gates: whale positioning (holder_pnl_skew) and BTC short-term momentum (btc_momentum_30s) must both disagree with the streak before we fade. Fewer bets, higher conviction. Forward-going from deploy.
MOMENTUM_LAG_180 — reads the 180-second lagged BTC token price and bets with the direction. Fires when momentum decay over 3-minute lookback exceeds the band threshold on any BTC 5‑min market. Flat $10 stakes — no martingale, no ladder. Live paper_account #202; the sim mirrors the bot's actual resolved bets.
Highest-WR strategy in the fleet (MTF_RSI_BB_WIDE_DOWN, 60% WR live) wrapped in a short 4-tier ladder. Bets DOWN every time the parent bot fires its strict RSI>60 + BB>0.65 + ATR>1.02 gate. $2.50 base, max $20, stop after one win per cycle. Auto-pauses if rolling WR drops below 55%.
STREAK_FOLLOW_K3 — bets with the streak after K=3 consecutive same-side market resolutions on BTC 5-min markets. Flat $10 stake, no martingale ladder. Live paper_account #176; the sim mirrors the bot's actual resolved bets. Fires roughly once per 8-15 markets when a K=3 streak forms.
BINANCE_LEADLAG_180 — the quantum-hunt edge. PM L2 book updates every ~4 sec; Binance ticks in milliseconds. When BTC moves ≥20bps in the past 3 minutes, the PM book is stale by 1-3 min. Bot reads Binance, hits the stale ask/bid, holds to resolution. Flat $10 stake, no martingale. Live paper_account #204. Backtest verified: 83.3% WR, n=1,356, net +17.5% EV/$ after fees.
CONFLUENCE_5 — fires only when 4+ of 5 independent signals agree on the same side. Fires when token shows clear book pressure during the bettable window. Reverse-engineered from the top mystery wallets: they react to PM book momentum rather than predicting BTC. Flat $10 stake, no martingale. Live paper_account #206.
Multiple 4+ streaks recently — martingale danger zone. Reversal rate after 3-streak: 52.6% over 75667 trigger events. Current streak: 6 Up in a row.
| K | n | P(cont) | 95% CI | σ vs 50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 314,316 | 49.3% | [49.1%-49.4%] | -8.4σ |
| 2 | 154,808 | 48.2% | [47.9%-48.4%] | -14.5σ |
| 3 | 74,556 | 47.1% | [46.8%-47.5%] | -15.8σ |
| 4 | 35,123 | 46.2% | [45.7%-46.8%] | -14.1σ |
| 5 | 16,243 | 46.3% | [45.6%-47.1%] | -9.3σ |
| 6 | 7,528 | 45.3% | [44.2%-46.4%] | -8.2σ |
| 7 | 3,410 | 45.2% | [43.6%-46.9%] | -5.6σ |
| 8 | 1,542 | 44.0% | [41.5%-46.5%] | -4.7σ |
| 9 | 678 | 44.2% | [40.6%-48.0%] | -3.0σ |
| 10 | 300 | 44.3% | [38.8%-50.0%] | -2.0σ |
| 11 | 133 | 51.9% | [43.5%-60.2%] | +0.4σ |
| 12 | 69 | 53.6% | [42.0%-64.9%] | +0.6σ |
| 13 | 37 | 54.1% | [38.4%-69.0%] | +0.5σ |
| 14 | 20 | 55.0% | [34.2%-74.2%] | +0.4σ |
| 15 | 11 | 36.4% | [15.2%-64.6%] | -0.9σ |
| K | last seen | expected | ratio | per/day |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 15m | 1h 24m | 0.2× | 17.23 |
| 5 | 3h 10m | 3h 1m | 1.0× | 7.95 |
| 6 | 3h 10m | 6h 23m | 0.5× | 3.76 |
| 7 | 3h 10m | 14h 5m | 0.2× | 1.70 |
| 8 | 4h 55m | 1d 6h | 0.2× | 0.79 |
| 9 | 4h 55m | 2d 21h | 0.1× | 0.34 |
| 10 | 9d 6h | 6d 13h | 1.4× | 0.15 |
| 11 | 10d 17h | 17d 3h | 0.6× | 0.06 |
| 12 | 10d 17h | 34d 6h | 0.3× | 0.03 |
| K | n bets | WR | PnL/bet | max DD | $1k→$N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 18,813 | 53.7% | $0.052 | 3.7% | $1,979 |
| 3 | 39,287 | 51.9% | $0.018 | 10.7% | $1,711 |
| 6 | 4,105 | 54.5% | $0.068 | 2.8% | $1,280 |
| 5 | 8,679 | 52.6% | $0.030 | 6.2% | $1,261 |
| 7 | 1,863 | 53.6% | $0.051 | 3.9% | $1,095 |
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