0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
no username
TRACKEDVPST24 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$3.6k
83W / 40L · WR 67.5%
Open exposure (live)
$27.2k
80 open · unrealized +$1.3k · 💰 45 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$893.9k
157 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$2.2k
−$735.46
Realized
+$3.6k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$1.7k
Profit capture (brain)
33%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$3.0k
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
247
local DB
First → Last trade
2025-10-29
→ 2025-12-20
🟢 Live open positions
80 live · $27,184 current value · unrealized +$1.3k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at … | Yes | 9,724 | $0.518 | $0.425 | 51.8% | 42.5% | $5,038 | $4,133 | $-906 | -18.0% | 2027-12-31 |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 6,364 | $0.357 | $0.470 | 35.7% | 47.0% | $2,271 | $2,991 | $+720 | +31.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | No | 2,908 | $0.878 | $0.989 | 87.8% | 98.9% | $2,552 | $2,876 | $+323 | +12.7% | 2026-06-15 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 4,419 | $0.357 | $0.425 | 35.7% | 42.5% | $1,579 | $1,878 | $+299 | +18.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | No | 2,643 | $0.451 | $0.705 | 45.1% | 70.5% | $1,192 | $1,863 | $+671 | +56.3% | 2026-06-22 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Elec… | Yes | 11,474 | $0.148 | $0.157 | 14.8% | 15.7% | $1,695 | $1,796 | $+100 | +5.9% | 2028-11-07 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1,522 | $0.765 | $0.760 | 76.5% | 76.0% | $1,165 | $1,157 | $-8 | -0.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 1,416 | $0.357 | $0.780 | 35.7% | 78.0% | $506 | $1,104 | $+598 | +118.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 3,423 | $0.287 | $0.270 | 28.7% | 27.0% | $984 | $924 | $-60 | -6.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 959 | $0.544 | $0.600 | 54.4% | 60.0% | $522 | $576 | $+53 | +10.2% | 2026-06-23 |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | No | 756 | $0.706 | $0.750 | 70.6% | 75.0% | $534 | $568 | $+34 | +6.3% | 2026-06-28 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Ele… | Yes | 3,700 | $0.164 | $0.144 | 16.4% | 14.4% | $608 | $535 | $-73 | -12.0% | 2028-11-07 |
| OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? | Yes | 605 | $0.719 | $0.840 | 71.9% | 84.0% | $435 | $508 | $+73 | +16.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 947 | $0.514 | $0.535 | 51.4% | 53.5% | $486 | $507 | $+20 | +4.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | Yes | 2,656 | $0.217 | $0.175 | 21.8% | 17.5% | $578 | $465 | $-113 | -19.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the… | No | 462 | $0.766 | $0.910 | 76.6% | 91.0% | $354 | $420 | $+67 | +18.8% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | Yes | 708 | $0.643 | $0.560 | 64.3% | 56.0% | $456 | $397 | $-59 | -12.9% | 2027-12-31 |
| OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? | OpenAI | 604 | $0.300 | $0.510 | 30.0% | 51.0% | $181 | $308 | $+127 | +70.0% | 2027-01-01 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases b… | Yes | 777 | $0.407 | $0.345 | 40.7% | 34.5% | $316 | $268 | $-48 | -15.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% … | No | 479 | $0.420 | $0.535 | 42.0% | 53.5% | $201 | $256 | $+55 | +27.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score b… | Yes | 314 | $0.734 | $0.795 | 73.4% | 79.5% | $231 | $250 | $+19 | +8.2% | 2026-09-30 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of a… | No | 290 | $0.511 | $0.800 | 51.1% | 80.0% | $148 | $232 | $+84 | +56.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the… | No | 668 | $0.220 | $0.345 | 22.0% | 34.5% | $147 | $230 | $+83 | +56.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by Ju… | No | 222 | $0.730 | $0.910 | 73.0% | 91.0% | $162 | $202 | $+40 | +24.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | Yes | 2,836 | $0.048 | $0.059 | 4.8% | 5.9% | $135 | $167 | $+32 | +23.8% | 2027-12-31 |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a … | No | 357 | $0.677 | $0.443 | 67.7% | 44.2% | $242 | $158 | $-84 | -34.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential El… | Yes | 3,000 | $0.033 | $0.051 | 3.3% | 5.1% | $99 | $153 | $+54 | +54.2% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the en… | Yes | 649 | $0.112 | $0.235 | 11.2% | 23.5% | $73 | $153 | $+80 | +110.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026… | No | 196 | $0.515 | $0.670 | 51.5% | 67.0% | $101 | $131 | $+30 | +30.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers b… | Yes | 1,072 | $0.206 | $0.115 | 20.6% | 11.5% | $221 | $123 | $-98 | -44.3% | 2026-06-16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end … | Yes | 400 | $0.520 | $0.295 | 52.0% | 29.5% | $208 | $118 | $-90 | -43.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of J… | Yes | 1,553 | $0.154 | $0.065 | 15.4% | 6.5% | $240 | $101 | $-139 | -57.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028… | Yes | 414 | $0.244 | $0.230 | 24.4% | 23.0% | $101 | $95 | $-6 | -5.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the… | No | 120 | $0.664 | $0.765 | 66.4% | 76.5% | $80 | $92 | $+12 | +15.2% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | Yes | 588 | $0.234 | $0.155 | 23.4% | 15.5% | $137 | $91 | $-46 | -33.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30,… | Yes | 105 | $0.940 | $0.769 | 94.0% | 77.0% | $99 | $81 | $-18 | -18.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 202… | No | 85 | $0.692 | $0.885 | 69.2% | 88.5% | $59 | $75 | $+16 | +27.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at th… | Yes | 80 | $0.350 | $0.850 | 35.0% | 85.0% | $28 | $68 | $+40 | +142.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 69 | $0.940 | $0.993 | 94.0% | 99.2% | $64 | $68 | $+4 | +5.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before… | Yes | 418 | $0.152 | $0.155 | 15.2% | 15.5% | $63 | $65 | $+1 | +1.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.… | Yes | 663 | $0.043 | $0.098 | 4.3% | 9.8% | $29 | $65 | $+36 | +126.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | 97 | $0.592 | $0.665 | 59.2% | 66.5% | $57 | $64 | $+7 | +12.4% | 2027-12-31 |
| Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the … | No | 150 | $0.324 | $0.390 | 32.4% | 39.0% | $49 | $58 | $+10 | +20.3% | 2026-02-28 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and … | Yes | 549 | $0.100 | $0.105 | 10.0% | 10.5% | $55 | $58 | $+3 | +5.0% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end… | Yes | 500 | $0.110 | $0.115 | 11.0% | 11.5% | $55 | $57 | $+2 | +4.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 74 | $0.684 | $0.760 | 68.4% | 76.0% | $51 | $57 | $+6 | +11.1% | 2027-12-31 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the … | Yes | 270 | $0.280 | $0.205 | 28.0% | 20.5% | $76 | $55 | $-20 | -26.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the… | No | 162 | $0.220 | $0.325 | 22.0% | 32.5% | $36 | $53 | $+17 | +47.7% | 2026-07-31 |
| Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral elect… | Yes | 204 | $0.100 | $0.225 | 10.0% | 22.5% | $20 | $46 | $+25 | +125.0% | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the e… | Yes | 453 | $0.153 | $0.100 | 15.3% | 10.0% | $69 | $45 | $-24 | -34.5% | 2026-06-30 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
45 markets settled · $0 unclaimed📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
Sun
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Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-15 05:31:59
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 05:24
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
21 openClosed positions
most recent 50| Exit when | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Exit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 22:57 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20… | Yes | 2186 | 2.143 | 0.840 | -$2.8k |
| 2026-06-13 14:31 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext… | Yes | 200 | 0.400 | 0.460 | +$12.00 |
| 2026-06-13 00:18 | Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end… | Yes | 305 | 0.250 | 0.226 | -$7.33 |
| 2026-06-12 19:55 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and… | Yes | 794 | 0.479 | 0.980 | +$398.16 |
| 2026-06-12 17:57 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and… | Yes | 22 | 0.060 | 0.060 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-12 15:11 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and… | Yes | 158 | 0.939 | 0.190 | -$117.94 |
Recent trades
100 of 247 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | -$2.6k |
Coordinated-buy involvement
events that included this wallet| When | Market | Wallets | Notional | Diversity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 15:46 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end… | 3 | $118.53 | 0.72 |
| 2026-06-02 15:42 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end… | 3 | $107.38 | 0.72 |
| 2026-05-29 18:38 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $2.0k | 0.90 |
| 2026-05-29 15:56 | Will Donald Trump announce that the United St… | 3 | $1.4k | 0.52 |
| 2026-05-28 14:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $7.6k | 0.53 |
| 2026-05-28 14:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 202… | 3 | $7.6k | 0.53 |
| 2026-05-28 14:08 | Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | 3 | $751.77 | 0.57 |