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0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643

no username
TRACKEDVPST26 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:filter_3.csv|vps:profile_inventory|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$6.7k
263W / 81L · WR 76.5%
Open exposure (live)
$5.3k
8 open · unrealized +$336.27 · 💰 1 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$1.83M
452 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$1.3k
−$454.70
Realized
+$6.7k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$338.57
Profit capture (brain)
-
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
13
local DB
First → Last trade
2025-08-25
→ 2025-12-20

🟢 Live open positions

8 live · $5,333 current value · unrealized +$336.27
MarketSideSharesAvg priceCur priceEntry oddsCur oddsCostValuePnLPnL %Expires
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Septemb…No3,141$0.767$0.86576.7%86.5%$2,409$2,717$+308+12.8%2026-04-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30…No1,918$0.886$0.97188.6%97.1%$1,700$1,863$+163+9.6%2026-04-30
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15…No309$0.970$0.99797.0%99.7%$300$308$+8+2.8%2026-06-15
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison ti…Yes300$0.703$0.82870.3%82.8%$211$248$+37+17.7%2025-12-31
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 …No100$0.961$0.97596.1%97.5%$96$98$+1+1.5%2025-12-31
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes104$0.915$0.50591.5%50.5%$95$52$-42-44.8%2026-12-31
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-W…Yes65$0.824$0.53082.4%53.0%$54$34$-19-35.7%2026-12-31
Kash Patel out by June 30?Yes161$0.828$0.08082.8%8.0%$133$13$-120-90.3%2026-06-30

💰 Resolved · pending claim

1 markets settled · $0 unclaimed
MarketSideSharesCostValuePnLResolved
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No673$250$0$-2502026-06-30

📡 Live activity feed

100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any wallet
WhenTypeSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-15 02:43TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No312$0.160$52.000xbd1a56…
2026-06-14 22:01TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No1,238$0.251$298.770x75c11c…
2026-06-14 21:58TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No405$0.247$104.000xac13c6…
2026-06-14 21:57TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No412$0.243$104.000x2417e7…
2026-06-14 21:57TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No422$0.237$104.000x5ed375…
2026-06-14 19:32TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No172$0.590$97.650x25a717…
2026-06-14 19:32TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No135$0.869$112.510xac20fa…
2026-06-14 01:59TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No135$0.741$104.000xf06682…
2026-06-13 05:15TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No172$0.580$104.000xc4d91a…
2026-06-13 05:14TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No179$0.560$104.000x76ed3b…
2026-06-13 05:13TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No182$0.550$104.000x84e30c…
2026-06-13 05:10TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No325$0.983$306.610xd0e2d3…
2026-06-12 22:54REDEEM-Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?-104$0.000$104.290xc65446…
2026-06-12 22:54REDEEM-Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?-606$0.000$605.940xc65446…
2026-06-12 16:43REDEEM-Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?-4,304$0.000$4.3k0x88ca07…
2026-06-12 15:50TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo132$0.755$104.000x86def3…
2026-06-12 00:55TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo128$0.780$104.000xc7f57d…
2026-06-11 14:11TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran dipYes500$0.200$95.790xd0ef5c…
2026-06-11 02:34TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No114$0.874$104.000xfda97b…
2026-06-11 02:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo149$0.670$104.000xf5245c…
2026-06-11 02:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No109$0.920$104.000x405fb9…
2026-06-11 02:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No103$0.972$104.000xda2392…
2026-06-11 02:32TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No109$0.920$104.000xbf52b0…
2026-06-11 02:32TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No103$0.968$104.000x1b3840…
2026-06-10 05:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No108$0.930$104.000xd8259f…
2026-06-10 05:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No103$0.969$104.000xd5e70b…
2026-06-10 04:50TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No112$0.890$104.000x840f0c…
2026-06-10 04:50TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No113$0.887$104.000x116050…
2026-06-09 23:23TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo130$0.772$104.000xf81fab…
2026-06-09 23:23TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No111$0.898$104.000xc9cf82…
2026-06-09 03:45TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No111$0.900$104.000xf61c87…
2026-06-09 03:45TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo140$0.715$104.000xbc59b8…
2026-06-08 23:18TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo132$0.755$104.000x276e78…
2026-06-08 23:17TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo135$0.740$104.000x76b6d8…
2026-06-08 11:43TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo129$0.777$104.000x83d26c…
2026-06-08 11:33TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo133$0.750$104.000x9a3b3a…
2026-06-08 11:05TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No121$0.825$104.000x8dfdae…
2026-06-08 11:05TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo143$0.700$104.000xf863d4…
2026-06-08 11:05TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No121$0.825$104.000x70250e…
2026-06-08 11:04TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo144$0.697$104.000x8c10c3…
2026-06-08 11:03TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No121$0.824$104.000x958f8e…
2026-06-08 03:45TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No113$0.887$104.000x5bbdf7…
2026-06-08 03:42TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No114$0.874$104.000x2bc0a8…
2026-06-08 03:14TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No110$0.906$104.000x00397d…
2026-06-08 03:14TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo130$0.772$104.000x3c725a…
2026-06-08 03:13TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No114$0.879$104.000x41c2f0…
2026-06-08 02:20TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo129$0.775$104.000xa0d079…
2026-06-08 02:20TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No108$0.923$104.000x72ad4d…
2026-06-08 02:19TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo260$0.770$208.000xf5dad2…
2026-06-08 02:19TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No108$0.927$104.000x2df3a3…
2026-06-08 02:18TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No109$0.917$104.000x084d95…
2026-06-08 02:18TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo131$0.765$104.000xf0d2da…
2026-06-06 08:04TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes100$0.730$69.290x7a0ead…
2026-06-04 05:21TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes102$0.977$104.090x7da252…
2026-06-03 21:41TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No53$0.936$52.000x0bf1b1…
2026-06-03 21:41TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No54$0.933$52.000x8919de…
2026-06-03 21:40TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo127$0.790$104.000xb1cc10…
2026-06-03 13:32TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo125$0.800$104.000x57dd7b…
2026-06-03 13:31TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June No109$0.917$104.000x3efe99…
2026-06-03 09:33TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.967$104.130xb2de5d…
2026-06-03 09:33TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.966$104.130x6b47c4…
2026-06-03 01:42TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.972$104.110x1189ac…
2026-06-03 01:41TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.972$104.110x86e64a…
2026-06-03 01:41TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.972$104.110x802d52…
2026-06-03 01:40TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo121$0.827$104.000x6ea012…
2026-06-03 01:39TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo123$0.815$104.000xfc1c8d…
2026-06-03 01:14TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes104$0.959$104.160x9d4027…
2026-06-03 01:13TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.972$104.110xa46c4e…
2026-06-03 01:12TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.972$104.110x6c07e5…
2026-06-02 21:55TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo122$0.820$104.000xe6811c…
2026-06-02 21:54TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo61$0.820$52.000x73d54c…
2026-06-02 21:54TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by SepteNo123$0.810$104.000x16d410…
2026-06-02 21:52REDEEM-Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May-0$0.000$0.000x3491f6…
2026-06-02 21:52REDEEM-Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 3-1,400$0.000$1.4k0x3491f6…
2026-06-02 21:52TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.969$104.120xaa771d…
2026-06-02 21:51TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.969$104.120x170ddb…
2026-06-02 21:51TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?Yes103$0.968$104.130x90c6c0…
2026-06-02 01:27REDEEM-US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?-0$0.000$0.000x0486b9…
2026-06-02 01:27REDEEM-Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by -1,501$0.000$1.5k0x0486b9…
2026-06-01 07:44REDEEM-US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?-2,200$0.000$2.2k0xdb1b15…

Performance breakdown

-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL

Performance calendar

click a day to see trades · navigate months

-

Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat

Cumulative realized PnL

per closed-position exit, in chronological order

Polling state

Last polled
2026-06-15 05:31:56
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 02:43
Backfill
✓ done

Calibration - WR by probability bucket

gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.8

Open positions

4 open
MarketOutcomeSharesEntryLastUnrealized
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 20…No082987.555-$0.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 20…No026385.225-$0.00
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No6730.372-$0.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Se…No1320.755-$0.00

Recent trades

13 of 13 shown
WhenSideMarketOutcomeSharesPriceUSDTx
2026-06-15 02:43BUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No3120.160$50.000xbd1a56…
2026-06-14 22:01SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No12380.251$311.220x75c11c…
2026-06-14 21:58BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No4050.247$100.000xac13c6…
2026-06-14 21:57BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No4120.243$100.000x2417e7…
2026-06-14 21:57BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No4220.237$100.000x5ed375…
2026-06-14 19:32SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 3…No1720.590$101.720x25a717…
2026-06-14 19:32SELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No1350.869$117.200xac20fa…
2026-06-14 01:59BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 1…No1350.741$100.000xf06682…
2026-06-13 05:15BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 3…No1720.580$100.000xc4d91a…
2026-06-13 05:14BUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No1790.560$100.000x76ed3b…
2026-06-13 05:13BUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No1820.550$100.000x84e30c…
2026-06-13 05:10SELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed …No3250.983$319.390xd0e2d3…
2026-06-12 15:50BUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed …No1320.755$100.000x86def3…

Coordinated-buy involvement

events that included this wallet
WhenMarketWalletsNotionalDiversity
2026-05-29 17:59Will Donald Trump announce that the United St…3$4.2k0.97
2026-05-29 14:51Will Donald Trump announce that the United St…3$1.6k0.72