0x1d5f88f1b97317cccad804374e5bd847512e634d
no username
TRACKEDVPST24 SOURCES
Sources: vps:active_manifest|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$19.4k
99W / 52L · WR 65.6%
Open exposure (live)
$96.1k
89 open · unrealized +$10.7k · 💰 28 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$128.4k
203 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$4.2k
−$2.6k
Realized
+$19.4k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$11.1k
Profit capture (brain)
-
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
86
local DB
First → Last trade
2026-01-25
→ 2026-04-19
🟢 Live open positions
89 live · $96,115 current value · unrealized +$10.7k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates afte… | Yes | 18,257 | $0.816 | $0.989 | 81.5% | 98.9% | $14,890 | $18,047 | $+3,158 | +21.2% | 2026-06-18 |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-e… | No | 10,000 | $0.951 | $0.988 | 95.1% | 98.8% | $9,506 | $9,875 | $+369 | +3.9% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte… | Yes | 6,800 | $0.873 | $0.935 | 87.3% | 93.5% | $5,938 | $6,358 | $+420 | +7.1% | 2026-07-29 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | No | 5,028 | $0.917 | $0.977 | 91.7% | 97.7% | $4,613 | $4,910 | $+297 | +6.4% | 2026-06-17 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps a… | Yes | 3,740 | $0.900 | $0.985 | 90.0% | 98.5% | $3,366 | $3,683 | $+317 | +9.4% | 2026-06-16 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 m… | Yes | 3,795 | $0.802 | $0.930 | 80.2% | 93.0% | $3,045 | $3,529 | $+485 | +15.9% | 2026-07-23 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? | No | 4,159 | $0.722 | $0.830 | 72.2% | 83.0% | $3,003 | $3,452 | $+448 | +14.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate af… | Yes | 3,808 | $0.670 | $0.855 | 67.0% | 85.5% | $2,551 | $3,256 | $+704 | +27.6% | 2026-06-16 |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the … | Yes | 2,710 | $0.865 | $0.931 | 86.5% | 93.2% | $2,343 | $2,525 | $+182 | +7.7% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte… | Yes | 2,174 | $0.938 | $0.996 | 93.8% | 99.6% | $2,040 | $2,165 | $+125 | +6.1% | 2026-06-17 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change … | Yes | 1,921 | $0.832 | $0.990 | 83.2% | 99.0% | $1,599 | $1,901 | $+303 | +18.9% | 2026-06-16 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the Jul… | No | 1,964 | $0.846 | $0.941 | 84.6% | 94.1% | $1,662 | $1,848 | $+186 | +11.2% | 2026-07-23 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June… | No | 1,600 | $0.915 | $0.982 | 91.5% | 98.2% | $1,464 | $1,571 | $+107 | +7.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 3… | No | 1,556 | $0.829 | $0.991 | 82.9% | 99.1% | $1,291 | $1,542 | $+252 | +19.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | No | 2,299 | $0.308 | $0.665 | 30.8% | 66.5% | $709 | $1,529 | $+820 | +115.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-elect… | Yes | 2,000 | $0.809 | $0.735 | 80.9% | 73.5% | $1,618 | $1,470 | $-148 | -9.2% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate afte… | Yes | 1,501 | $0.871 | $0.930 | 87.1% | 93.0% | $1,307 | $1,396 | $+89 | +6.8% | 2026-06-19 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates afte… | Yes | 1,808 | $0.776 | $0.735 | 77.6% | 73.5% | $1,404 | $1,329 | $-74 | -5.3% | 2026-09-16 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | No | 1,413 | $0.849 | $0.920 | 84.9% | 92.0% | $1,200 | $1,300 | $+100 | +8.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps… | No | 1,285 | $0.890 | $0.989 | 89.0% | 98.9% | $1,144 | $1,271 | $+127 | +11.1% | 2026-06-18 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps… | No | 1,234 | $0.827 | $0.865 | 82.7% | 86.5% | $1,020 | $1,067 | $+47 | +4.6% | 2026-07-30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? | No | 1,000 | $0.920 | $1.000 | 92.0% | 100.0% | $920 | $1,000 | $+80 | +8.6% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? | No | 985 | $0.795 | $0.982 | 79.5% | 98.2% | $783 | $967 | $+184 | +23.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the targ… | Yes | 1,029 | $0.822 | $0.940 | 82.2% | 94.0% | $845 | $967 | $+122 | +14.4% | 2026-07-15 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three d… | Yes | 1,030 | $0.912 | $0.920 | 91.2% | 92.0% | $939 | $948 | $+9 | +0.9% | 2026-07-29 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by Septem… | No | 1,000 | $0.749 | $0.910 | 74.9% | 91.0% | $749 | $910 | $+161 | +21.5% | 2026-09-30 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by Decemb… | No | 1,000 | $0.636 | $0.850 | 63.6% | 85.0% | $636 | $850 | $+214 | +33.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the ta… | No | 800 | $0.827 | $0.993 | 82.7% | 99.3% | $662 | $794 | $+132 | +20.0% | 2026-06-16 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June… | No | 800 | $0.900 | $0.984 | 90.0% | 98.4% | $720 | $787 | $+67 | +9.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | No | 830 | $0.893 | $0.843 | 89.3% | 84.3% | $741 | $700 | $-42 | -5.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates afte… | Yes | 799 | $0.768 | $0.845 | 76.8% | 84.5% | $614 | $675 | $+61 | +10.0% | 2026-07-30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? | No | 600 | $0.760 | $1.000 | 76.0% | 100.0% | $456 | $600 | $+144 | +31.5% | 2026-06-15 |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Yes | 800 | $0.610 | $0.690 | 61.0% | 69.0% | $488 | $552 | $+64 | +13.1% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? | No | 706 | $0.322 | $0.755 | 32.2% | 75.5% | $227 | $533 | $+306 | +134.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israe… | Yes | 720 | $0.585 | $0.740 | 58.5% | 74.0% | $421 | $533 | $+112 | +26.5% | 2026-07-06 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June… | No | 529 | $0.801 | $0.967 | 80.1% | 96.7% | $424 | $512 | $+88 | +20.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June… | No | 500 | $0.840 | $0.974 | 84.0% | 97.4% | $420 | $487 | $+67 | +16.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | No | 500 | $0.915 | $0.970 | 91.5% | 97.0% | $458 | $485 | $+27 | +6.0% | 2026-07-01 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | No | 497 | $0.811 | $0.956 | 81.1% | 95.6% | $403 | $475 | $+72 | +17.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after… | Yes | 742 | $0.626 | $0.635 | 62.6% | 63.5% | $464 | $471 | $+7 | +1.4% | 2026-08-06 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | No | 500 | $0.765 | $0.926 | 76.5% | 92.7% | $382 | $463 | $+81 | +21.1% | 2026-07-01 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2… | No | 500 | $0.900 | $0.905 | 90.0% | 90.5% | $450 | $452 | $+2 | +0.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 500 | $0.650 | $0.790 | 65.0% | 79.0% | $325 | $395 | $+70 | +21.5% | 2028-01-01 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 500 | $0.790 | $0.765 | 79.0% | 76.5% | $395 | $383 | $-12 | -3.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 500 | $0.478 | $0.715 | 47.8% | 71.5% | $239 | $358 | $+119 | +49.6% | 2028-01-01 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 500 | $0.350 | $0.650 | 35.0% | 65.0% | $175 | $325 | $+150 | +85.8% | 2028-01-01 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2,000 | $0.167 | $0.162 | 16.7% | 16.2% | $334 | $323 | $-11 | -3.3% | 2026-07-20 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2,000 | $0.164 | $0.161 | 16.4% | 16.1% | $328 | $321 | $-7 | -2.1% | 2026-07-20 |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | No | 500 | $0.730 | $0.635 | 73.0% | 63.5% | $365 | $318 | $-48 | -13.0% | 2028-01-01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 2,000 | $0.150 | $0.155 | 15.0% | 15.5% | $300 | $310 | $+10 | +3.3% | 2027-12-31 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
28 markets settled · $0 unclaimed📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-15 05:31:59
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 04:58
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
20 openRecent trades
86 of 86 shownCoordinated-buy involvement
events that included this wallet| When | Market | Wallets | Notional | Diversity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 14:09 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 4 | $6.8k | 0.25 |
| 2026-06-01 14:07 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 4 | $5.8k | 0.25 |
| 2026-06-01 14:03 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 4 | $9.5k | 0.25 |
| 2026-06-01 13:59 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 3 | $3.9k | 0.33 |
| 2026-06-01 12:22 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 6 | $6.6k | 0.46 |
| 2026-06-01 12:21 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 6 | $7.2k | 0.65 |
| 2026-06-01 12:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 7 | $6.9k | 0.57 |
| 2026-06-01 12:14 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 3 | $6.1k | 0.95 |
| 2026-06-01 12:12 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 5 | $9.2k | 0.85 |
| 2026-06-01 12:12 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 5 | $9.7k | 0.85 |
| 2026-06-01 12:10 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 4 | $13.6k | 0.74 |
| 2026-06-01 12:08 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 6 | $17.6k | 0.68 |