0x0b652d3e55be0e1d50c2f7be39358585c415293e
jumboNuts
TRACKEDT34 SOURCES
Sources: local:god_system_wallets|vps:filter_1.csv|vps:filter_2.csv|vps:wallet_scores_master
Total PnL (lifetime)
+$20.6k
496W / 45L · WR 91.7%
Open exposure (live)
$54.8k
48 open · unrealized +$842.41 · 💰 6 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$16.48M
469 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$3.5k
−$2.7k
Realized
+$20.6k
Unrealized (local approx)
+$860.30
Profit capture (brain)
50%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$0.00
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
84
local DB
First → Last trade
2026-01-07
→ 2026-04-18
🟢 Live open positions
48 live · $54,829 current value · unrealized +$842.41| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 3… | No | 6,978 | $0.982 | $0.996 | 98.2% | 99.6% | $6,850 | $6,947 | $+97 | +1.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by Decemb… | No | 5,420 | $0.845 | $0.915 | 84.5% | 91.5% | $4,578 | $4,960 | $+382 | +8.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June … | No | 3,594 | $0.971 | $0.982 | 97.1% | 98.2% | $3,490 | $3,530 | $+40 | +1.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ju… | No | 3,059 | $0.938 | $0.990 | 93.8% | 99.0% | $2,870 | $3,027 | $+158 | +5.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 3,000 | $0.909 | $0.994 | 90.9% | 99.4% | $2,728 | $2,981 | $+253 | +9.3% | 2026-06-30 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 3,000 | $0.912 | $0.982 | 91.2% | 98.2% | $2,735 | $2,946 | $+211 | +7.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | Yes | 2,684 | $0.854 | $0.996 | 85.4% | 99.6% | $2,292 | $2,673 | $+381 | +16.6% | 2026-07-31 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31,… | Yes | 2,500 | $0.792 | $0.905 | 79.2% | 90.5% | $1,980 | $2,262 | $+283 | +14.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | No | 3,115 | $0.694 | $0.663 | 69.4% | 66.3% | $2,163 | $2,067 | $-96 | -4.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 2,000 | $0.976 | $0.992 | 97.6% | 99.2% | $1,953 | $1,984 | $+31 | +1.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 2,000 | $0.926 | $0.939 | 92.6% | 93.8% | $1,852 | $1,877 | $+25 | +1.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | 2,000 | $0.913 | $0.925 | 91.3% | 92.5% | $1,827 | $1,850 | $+23 | +1.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4,000 | $0.622 | $0.445 | 62.2% | 44.5% | $2,487 | $1,780 | $-707 | -28.4% | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,700 | $0.910 | $0.925 | 91.0% | 92.5% | $1,548 | $1,572 | $+25 | +1.6% | 2025-12-31 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security g… | No | 1,442 | $0.924 | $0.990 | 92.4% | 99.0% | $1,333 | $1,428 | $+95 | +7.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end… | Yes | 1,250 | $0.703 | $0.835 | 70.2% | 83.5% | $878 | $1,044 | $+166 | +18.9% | 2026-12-31 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | No | 1,056 | $0.955 | $0.974 | 95.5% | 97.4% | $1,009 | $1,028 | $+20 | +1.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military stri… | Yes | 1,000 | $0.976 | $0.994 | 97.6% | 99.4% | $976 | $993 | $+18 | +1.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | No | 1,000 | $0.989 | $0.993 | 98.9% | 99.3% | $989 | $993 | $+4 | +0.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Au… | No | 1,000 | $0.925 | $0.935 | 92.5% | 93.5% | $925 | $935 | $+10 | +1.1% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1,000 | $0.870 | $0.915 | 87.0% | 91.5% | $870 | $915 | $+45 | +5.2% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 858 | $0.980 | $0.983 | 98.0% | 98.3% | $841 | $844 | $+3 | +0.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | No | 1,000 | $0.880 | $0.810 | 88.0% | 81.0% | $880 | $810 | $-70 | -8.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,000 | $0.855 | $0.805 | 85.5% | 80.5% | $855 | $805 | $-50 | -5.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2… | Yes | 3,015 | $0.404 | $0.235 | 40.4% | 23.5% | $1,217 | $709 | $-509 | -41.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litan… | No | 700 | $0.923 | $0.805 | 92.3% | 80.5% | $646 | $563 | $-82 | -12.8% | 2026-07-01 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June … | No | 600 | $0.853 | $0.860 | 85.3% | 86.0% | $512 | $516 | $+4 | +0.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ju… | No | 500 | $0.985 | $0.993 | 98.5% | 99.2% | $492 | $496 | $+4 | +0.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? | No | 500 | $0.980 | $0.985 | 98.0% | 98.5% | $490 | $492 | $+2 | +0.5% | 2026-05-31 |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 400 | $0.938 | $0.972 | 93.8% | 97.2% | $375 | $389 | $+13 | +3.6% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? | No | 301 | $0.959 | $0.980 | 95.9% | 98.0% | $288 | $295 | $+6 | +2.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by … | No | 251 | $0.978 | $0.986 | 97.8% | 98.6% | $246 | $248 | $+2 | +0.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 200 | $0.880 | $0.895 | 88.0% | 89.5% | $176 | $179 | $+3 | +1.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will "Creed III" be the top US Netflix movie this … | No | 100 | $0.995 | $0.994 | 99.5% | 99.4% | $100 | $99 | $-0 | -0.1% | 2026-06-17 |
| Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 100 | $0.900 | $0.984 | 90.0% | 98.4% | $90 | $98 | $+8 | +9.3% | 1970-01-01 |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain … | No | 79 | $0.940 | $0.989 | 94.0% | 98.9% | $74 | $78 | $+4 | +5.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 78 | $0.963 | $0.981 | 96.3% | 98.1% | $75 | $77 | $+1 | +1.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | No | 116 | $0.454 | $0.655 | 45.4% | 65.5% | $53 | $76 | $+23 | +44.3% | 2026-06-07 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by … | No | 80 | $0.860 | $0.865 | 86.0% | 86.5% | $69 | $69 | $+0 | +0.6% | 2026-12-31 |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | No | 50 | $0.870 | $0.999 | 87.0% | 99.9% | $43 | $50 | $+6 | +14.8% | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30? | No | 45 | $0.890 | $0.997 | 89.0% | 99.7% | $40 | $45 | $+5 | +12.0% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | No | 30 | $0.966 | $0.978 | 96.6% | 97.8% | $29 | $29 | $+0 | +1.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? | No | 33 | $0.700 | $0.805 | 70.0% | 80.5% | $23 | $26 | $+3 | +15.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain … | No | 18 | $0.810 | $0.910 | 81.0% | 91.0% | $15 | $16 | $+2 | +12.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July … | No | 20 | $0.710 | $0.780 | 71.0% | 78.0% | $14 | $16 | $+1 | +9.9% | 2026-07-31 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security g… | No | 6 | $0.820 | $0.880 | 82.0% | 88.0% | $5 | $5 | $+0 | +7.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison ti… | No | 24 | $0.160 | $0.172 | 16.0% | 17.2% | $4 | $4 | $+0 | +7.4% | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litan… | No | 1 | $0.961 | $0.983 | 96.1% | 98.2% | $1 | $1 | $+0 | +2.2% | 2026-06-16 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
6 markets settled · $0 unclaimed| Market | Side | Shares | Cost | Value | PnL | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | No | 34 | $4 | $0 | $-4 | 2026-06-30 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 100,000 | $100 | $0 | $-100 | 2026-04-15 |
| Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social? | No | 300 | $172 | $0 | $-172 | 2026-04-19 |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U… | No | 2,000 | $314 | $0 | $-314 | 2026-04-30 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 1,000 | $933 | $0 | $-933 | 2026-05-31 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? | No | 1,780 | $1,463 | $0 | $-1,463 | 2026-04-30 |
📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
click a day to see trades · navigate months-
Sun
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-15 05:24:06
Latest trade ts
2026-06-15 04:35
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
13 open| Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Last | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control … | No | 500 | 0.985 | - | $0.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control … | No | 1000 | 0.925 | - | $0.00 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarante… | No | 141 | 0.977 | - | $0.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control … | No | 1559 | 0.969 | - | $0.00 |
| Will "Creed III" be the top US Netflix movie … | No | 100 | 0.995 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by … | No | 1154 | 0.976 | - | $0.00 |
| Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? | No | 500 | 0.980 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | No | 500 | 0.910 | - | $0.00 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine secur… | No | 6 | 0.820 | - | $0.00 |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? | Yes | 2684 | 0.854 | - | $0.00 |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 40 | 0.963 | - | $0.00 |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | No | 113 | 0.457 | - | $0.00 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarante… | No | 73 | 0.860 | - | $0.00 |
Closed positions
most recent 50| Exit when | Market | Outcome | Shares | Entry | Exit | Realized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 16:10 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control … | No | 500 | 0.950 | 0.950 | $0.00 |
| 2026-06-14 07:02 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire ext… | No | 700 | 0.881 | 0.905 | +$16.51 |
Recent trades
84 of 84 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | +$16.51 |
Coordinated-buy involvement
events that included this wallet| When | Market | Wallets | Notional | Diversity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 21:04 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 3 | $62.8k | 0.97 |
| 2026-06-01 13:03 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 10 | $24.8k | 0.72 |
| 2026-06-01 13:00 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 10 | $15.2k | 0.81 |
| 2026-06-01 13:00 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 9 | $15.1k | 0.84 |
| 2026-06-01 12:59 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 9 | $15.7k | 0.84 |
| 2026-06-01 12:55 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 20… | 10 | $16.4k | 0.86 |
| 2026-06-01 00:26 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Ta… | 3 | $941.00 | 0.93 |
| 2026-06-01 00:21 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carl… | 3 | $793.98 | 0.68 |
| 2026-06-01 00:19 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Ta… | 3 | $790.19 | 0.68 |
| 2026-06-01 00:11 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carl… | 3 | $438.33 | 0.68 |
| 2026-06-01 00:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carl… | 3 | $1.1k | 0.89 |
| 2026-06-01 00:05 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Ta… | 3 | $2.4k | 0.89 |
| 2026-05-31 06:03 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | 3 | $11.4k | 0.78 |