0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
arb1ter
TRACKEDT31 SOURCES
Sources: local:god_system_wallets
Total PnL (lifetime)
$0.00
0W / 0L · WR -
Open exposure (live)
$240.9k
276 open · unrealized +$6.9k · 💰 224 pending claim ($0.00)
Lifetime turnover
$0.00
0 unique markets traded
Biggest win / loss
+$0.00
−$0.00
Realized
$0.00
Unrealized (local approx)
$0.00
Profit capture (brain)
19%
of peak kept
Giveback (brain)
$93.6k
peak minus realized
Trades ingested
1,448
local DB
First → Last trade
-
→ -
🟢 Live open positions
276 live · $240,899 current value · unrealized +$6.9k| Market | Side | Shares | Avg price | Cur price | Entry odds | Cur odds | Cost | Value | PnL | PnL % | Expires |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 42,470 | $0.722 | $0.774 | 72.2% | 77.5% | $30,673 | $32,893 | $+2,220 | +7.2% | 2026-06-15 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 31,445 | $0.990 | $0.995 | 99.0% | 99.5% | $31,134 | $31,272 | $+138 | +0.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-e… | No | 28,225 | $0.958 | $0.989 | 95.8% | 98.9% | $27,053 | $27,915 | $+862 | +3.2% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 15,000 | $0.880 | $0.895 | 88.0% | 89.5% | $13,200 | $13,425 | $+225 | +1.7% | 2026-12-31 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 16,893 | $0.689 | $0.755 | 68.9% | 75.5% | $11,646 | $12,754 | $+1,108 | +9.5% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the… | Yes | 15,902 | $0.689 | $0.605 | 68.9% | 60.5% | $10,957 | $9,621 | $-1,337 | -12.2% | 2026-09-30 |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-elect… | Yes | 9,043 | $0.758 | $0.735 | 75.8% | 73.5% | $6,856 | $6,646 | $-210 | -3.1% | 1970-01-01 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presiden… | Yes | 4,702 | $0.783 | $0.982 | 78.3% | 98.2% | $3,684 | $4,617 | $+933 | +25.3% | 2026-06-07 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30… | No | 4,596 | $0.974 | $0.991 | 97.4% | 99.1% | $4,477 | $4,552 | $+75 | +1.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | No | 4,560 | $0.545 | $0.895 | 54.5% | 89.5% | $2,484 | $4,081 | $+1,598 | +64.3% | 2026-07-01 |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 3… | No | 4,206 | $0.843 | $0.965 | 84.3% | 96.5% | $3,548 | $4,059 | $+511 | +14.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Ju… | No | 3,886 | $0.954 | $0.987 | 95.4% | 98.7% | $3,709 | $3,833 | $+124 | +3.4% | 2026-06-30 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Yes | 4,786 | $0.385 | $0.770 | 38.5% | 77.0% | $1,844 | $3,685 | $+1,841 | +99.9% | 2026-07-31 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be betwe… | Yes | 4,622 | $0.741 | $0.775 | 74.1% | 77.5% | $3,423 | $3,582 | $+159 | +4.6% | 2026-01-31 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | 3,516 | $0.923 | $0.985 | 92.3% | 98.5% | $3,245 | $3,461 | $+216 | +6.7% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Ma… | No | 3,026 | $0.950 | $0.969 | 95.0% | 96.9% | $2,875 | $2,932 | $+57 | +2.0% | 2026-06-18 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvia… | No | 2,699 | $0.774 | $0.990 | 77.5% | 99.0% | $2,090 | $2,670 | $+580 | +27.7% | 2026-06-07 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end… | Yes | 3,198 | $0.683 | $0.800 | 68.3% | 80.0% | $2,186 | $2,560 | $+374 | +17.1% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 3,202 | $0.764 | $0.775 | 76.4% | 77.5% | $2,446 | $2,482 | $+36 | +1.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 3,242 | $0.683 | $0.685 | 68.3% | 68.5% | $2,213 | $2,220 | $+7 | +0.3% | 2027-01-01 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 2,099 | $0.586 | $0.925 | 58.6% | 92.5% | $1,229 | $1,942 | $+712 | +58.0% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 2,073 | $0.857 | $0.915 | 85.7% | 91.5% | $1,777 | $1,897 | $+121 | +6.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 2,046 | $0.673 | $0.915 | 67.3% | 91.5% | $1,377 | $1,872 | $+495 | +36.0% | 2026-08-31 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Yes | 6,753 | $0.104 | $0.275 | 10.4% | 27.5% | $702 | $1,857 | $+1,155 | +164.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2,070 | $0.605 | $0.895 | 60.5% | 89.5% | $1,252 | $1,853 | $+601 | +48.0% | 2026-05-31 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | No | 1,773 | $0.667 | $0.973 | 66.7% | 97.3% | $1,182 | $1,725 | $+542 | +45.9% | 2026-06-16 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | Yes | 3,834 | $0.600 | $0.425 | 60.0% | 42.5% | $2,299 | $1,629 | $-670 | -29.1% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Yes | 2,240 | $0.178 | $0.660 | 17.8% | 66.0% | $399 | $1,478 | $+1,079 | +270.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 1,698 | $0.703 | $0.825 | 70.3% | 82.5% | $1,193 | $1,401 | $+207 | +17.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presiden… | Yes | 5,684 | $0.337 | $0.235 | 33.7% | 23.5% | $1,914 | $1,339 | $-576 | -30.1% | 2028-11-07 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 1,408 | $0.778 | $0.835 | 77.8% | 83.5% | $1,096 | $1,176 | $+80 | +7.3% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,587 | $0.736 | $0.735 | 73.6% | 73.5% | $1,168 | $1,167 | $-1 | -0.1% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 202… | No | 1,209 | $0.897 | $0.925 | 89.8% | 92.5% | $1,085 | $1,119 | $+33 | +3.1% | 2026-10-10 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 202… | No | 1,084 | $0.949 | $0.992 | 94.9% | 99.2% | $1,028 | $1,075 | $+47 | +4.6% | 2026-06-30 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30… | No | 1,100 | $0.774 | $0.971 | 77.4% | 97.1% | $851 | $1,068 | $+217 | +25.5% | 2026-04-30 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 1,259 | $0.839 | $0.840 | 83.9% | 84.0% | $1,056 | $1,057 | $+1 | +0.1% | 2026-07-20 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 1,001 | $0.930 | $0.984 | 93.0% | 98.4% | $931 | $984 | $+54 | +5.8% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Se… | Yes | 1,000 | $0.630 | $0.977 | 63.0% | 97.7% | $630 | $977 | $+347 | +55.1% | 2026-05-19 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 1,000 | $0.969 | $0.973 | 96.9% | 97.2% | $969 | $972 | $+4 | +0.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at th… | Yes | 1,120 | $0.713 | $0.855 | 71.3% | 85.5% | $799 | $957 | $+159 | +19.9% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1,188 | $0.771 | $0.805 | 77.1% | 80.5% | $916 | $957 | $+41 | +4.4% | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presiden… | Yes | 54,227 | $0.013 | $0.018 | 1.2% | 1.8% | $679 | $949 | $+270 | +39.8% | 2028-11-07 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 1,121 | $0.841 | $0.845 | 84.0% | 84.5% | $942 | $947 | $+5 | +0.5% | 2026-12-31 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Septemb… | No | 1,086 | $0.682 | $0.835 | 68.2% | 83.5% | $741 | $907 | $+166 | +22.4% | 2026-04-30 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 3… | No | 900 | $0.920 | $0.987 | 92.0% | 98.7% | $828 | $888 | $+60 | +7.2% | 2026-06-30 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Elec… | Yes | 5,625 | $0.498 | $0.156 | 49.8% | 15.6% | $2,800 | $877 | $-1,923 | -68.7% | 2028-11-07 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in Californ… | No | 1,146 | $0.657 | $0.655 | 65.7% | 65.5% | $752 | $750 | $-2 | -0.3% | 2026-11-03 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 793 | $0.926 | $0.940 | 92.6% | 94.0% | $734 | $745 | $+11 | +1.4% | 2026-12-31 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31… | Yes | 2,401 | $0.297 | $0.305 | 29.7% | 30.5% | $712 | $732 | $+20 | +2.8% | 2026-12-31 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of J… | No | 751 | $0.877 | $0.969 | 87.7% | 96.9% | $658 | $728 | $+69 | +10.5% | 2026-06-30 |
💰 Resolved · pending claim
224 markets settled · $0 unclaimed📡 Live activity feed
100 most recent · pulled live from Polymarket data-api · works for any walletPerformance breakdown
-1M
Realized + unrealized PnL
Performance calendar
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Cumulative realized PnL
per closed-position exit, in chronological orderPolling state
Last polled
2026-06-14 22:44:25
Latest trade ts
2026-06-14 22:35
Backfill
✓ done
Calibration - WR by probability bucket
gold = sharp-zone (n≥10, WR≥85%, edge≥+15pp in [0.65, 0.85])Open positions
42 openClosed positions
most recent 50Recent trades
100 of 1,448 shownBy category (closed only)
| Category | N closed | Realized PnL |
|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | -$0.51 |
| Other | 25 | -$92.7k |